2013-02-01 01:57:13 - Fast Market Research recommends "Portugal Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: Portugal's pharmaceutical and healthcare sector has been transformed since the intervention of the EU, IMF and ECB as part of the country's EUR78bn economic rescue package approved in May 2011. The latest review states that Portugal has already made considerable savings in the healthcare sectors, with changes such as the introduction of e-prescriptions and prescribing by active ingredients, changes to reference pricing, reductions in pharmacy margins and price cuts just some of the measures in place. The impact on the market has been widespread. Spending has been slashed and both domestic and multinational pharmaceutical firms have seen their profits shrink. Data recently published by Infarmed show that Portugal has dropped from hosting 138 clinical trials in 2008 to

just 87 in 2011, suggesting the country is losing its appeal as a location for research and development (R&D). Drug shortages in pharmacies are also commonplace, with a study published by Apifarma in October 2012 suggesting that parallel exports are partly to blame.


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Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: EUR4.47bn (US$6.21bn) in 2011 to EUR4.24bn (US$5.39bn) in 2012; -5.1% in local currency and -13.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast raised slightly from Q412 because of new historical data.
* Healthcare: EUR19.59bn (US$27.22bn) in 2011 to EUR20.16bn (US$25.60bn) in 2012; +2.9% in local currency and -6.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast raised from Q412 because of new historical data.
* Medical Devices: EUR740mn (US$1.03bn) in 2011 to EUR763mn (US$0.97bn) in 2012; +3.1% in local currency and -5.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.

Risk/Rewards Rating: Portugal's score of 58.6 in Q113 places it at the bottom of the Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) table for Western Europe. The impact of cost cutting and austerity measures as part of the EU/IMF/ECB's three-year economic adjustment package, which was approved in May 2011, is taking its toll on the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector and, while Portugal is on target to meet its healthcare sector goals, we are not forecasting a return to growth in terms of pharmaceutical sales until the end of our 10-year forecast period.

Key Trends & Developments

* Apifarma published a study in October 2012 that claims that parallel exports are one of the main causes behind drug shortages in pharmacies; it believes that wholesalers prefer to export drugs as this generates greater revenues.
* One of the few growth areas in Portugal's pharmaceuticals market is the sale of OTC drugs in mass market outlets. Data from Infarmed for H112 show that sales increased by 6.1% y-o-y compared to H111, climbing to EUR15.3mn.
* In October 2012, Portugal's Doctors' Guild claimed that the introduction of obligatory prescribing by active ingredient has not led to an increase of the market share of generic drugs in Portugal, which remained stable at around 25%.

BMI Economic View: We forecast the Portuguese economy to contract by 3.4% in 2012 and by 1.7% in 2013 in real GDP terms. The country's aggressive fiscal consolidation drive as part of its EUR78bn IMF/EU bailout package will keep domestic demand under significant pressure in the coming years. The only positive contributor to economic growth will emanate from the net exports component of GDP by expenditure. We also highlight balanced risks to our economic growth forecasts in Portugal.

BMI Political View: Portugal's government voted on its 2013 budget at the end of October 2012. The government has committed the country to additional spending cuts and increases in taxes - a move that is very unpopular with voters, but is essential if the government is to keep to the terms of its economic bailout package.

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