2013-02-22 14:17:19 -
New Materials research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Zimbabwe's mining sector is set for rapid development as the country dramatically recovers from two decades of declining output. Zimbabwe is richly endowed with deposits of chrome, gold, nickel and platinum, among other minerals. Its gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it hosts the second largest platinum reserves in the world. Another segment that has caught the attention of miners in Zimbabwe is diamonds, following the discovery of a number of significant kimberlites. Forecasting growth rates for the Zimbabwean mining sector is a highly uncertain process at present, with so much of the sector's direction governed by political events. At base, we believe the scene is set for a period of strong growth, as the industry recovers
from a disastrous period during the mid-2000s. While we see significant growth potential in gold and platinum output, it is in diamond production that the country holds the most promise, having the potential to match the largest producers over the long term.
Full Report Details at
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Over the short term, there could be renewed weakness in mining sector output, as the country looks to introduce its indigenisation policy, which could see companies scaling down their projects or leaving the country. However, for the most part we maintain that despite this policy investment will continue to flow in, given Zimbabwe's colossal mineral reserves. BMI believes that issues regarding the majority local ownership of mining assets remain the key challenge facing foreign mining companies operating in Zimbabwe. In 2011, the government committed to the continuation of its controversial Indigenization and Empowerment Act, which calls for a 51% stake in all mining companies (with assets over US$500,000) to be divested to indigenous Zimbabwean groups, with this new ownership structure to have been agreed upon by September 2011. Reaction from foreign miners operating in Zimbabwe has been negative, with Canadian miner Caledonia Mining stating that it will limit its spending in the country until there is further clarification about how indigenisation will be introduced.
In the longer term, if Western companies do decide to end their Zimbabwean operations as a result of indigenisation, then China is eager to enter the country. Such an arrangement could well be preferable for Robert Mugabe, who might prefer to deal with Chinese investors willing to take a minority stake in Zimbabwean mining operations, and who would bring significant amounts of funding to the sector. Moreover, China has not imposed sanctions or withheld budgetary aid to Harare in recent years, unlike Western powers. This would again appear to give Beijing the edge over Western interests.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Mining
Industry Forecast
- Platinum: Enormous Potenital Matched By Risks
- Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects
- Political Risks Weigh Heavily On Sector
- Table: Zimbabwe - Platinum Production ('000 ounces, unless stated otherwise)
- Diamonds: Sector Faces Uncertain Future
- Table: Zimbabwe - Diamond Production
- Gold: Production Set For Dramatic Turnaround
- Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe
- Table: Zimbabwe - Gold Production
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: African Government Intervention
- Elevated Prices Increasing Rewards, But Political Risks Lurk
- Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
Market Overview
- Table: Zimbabwe- Key Mining Projects
- Iron Ore & Coal Hold Promise
- Table: Zimbabwe - Mining Industry Value & Production
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
- Monthly Metals Strategy
- Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now
- Steel: Bleak Outlook
- Aluminium: Major Gains Over
- Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk
- Lead: Heading Lower
- Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs
- Tin: Continued Outperformance
- Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Company Profile
- African Consolidated Resources
- Impala Platinum
Regional Overview
- Africa Mining Outlook
- 1. Lack Of Infrastructure Is The Greatest Challenge
- 2. Resource Nationalism Will Increase
- Table: Table: Recent Government Intervention
- 3. Continuing Chinese Investment Into Africa
- 4. Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter
Global Industry Overview
- Global Mining Outlook
- 1. Winners & Losers In 2013
- Table: Recent Tax Increases
- 2. China Slowdown To Weigh On Mining Equities
- 3. Capex At Risk As Prices Head Lower
- 4. Africa To Continue Attracting Chinese Attention
- 5. Changing Global Coal Trade Dynamics
Methodology
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