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Pakistan Defence & Security Report Q1 2014 - New Market Report

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2013-12-27 11:48:14 - New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Pakistan Defence & Security Report Q1 2014"

Nawaz Sharif took over as prime minister of Pakistan in mid-2013 amid hopes that he could initiate peace talks with the Taliban and reverse the disastrous slide in his country's domestic security situation. In September 2013, Nawaz called an All Parties Conference which gave him the green light to begin negotiating with the Taliban, despite the group's continued insistence that all 150,000 Pakistan Army troops currently engaged in combat operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas should pull out before talks could start. However, Nawaz's plans are already in tatters. A suicide bomber killed 83 people at a church in Peshawar within days of the conference, and the death of Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud in a US drone strike

a month later makes it seem even less likely that talks could work.

Full Report Details at
- ..

Another key actor in any peace process, the Pakistan Army, is also set for change as General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani steps down as army commander at the time of writing in late November, after an unprecedented six years in charge. Due to the extreme sensitivity of the handover, the government said it would not announce Kayani's successor until the day before his retirement. Nawaz, who was ousted by a military coup during his first stint as prime minister, has assiduously courted Kayani since taking office in May, and he will undoubtedly make sustained efforts to keep his successor on side. He has already promised to increase the defence budget by 10% for the next two years, despite Pakistan's economic problems, so as to avoid any charge that his government is starving the military of funds.

The military now appears to be gearing up for what will be the biggest procurement programme in its history - the long-delayed acquisition of six new submarines worth up to U$4bn. China is in pole position to secure the contract, but Pakistan has recently signed defence industry collaboration agreements with South Korea and Turkey, and they both have a realistic chance of securing the order.

Another important milestone for the Pakistani defence industry may soon come with a first export order for the JF-17 fighter aircraft, a mainly Chinese design now being manufactured in Pakistan. Recent reports suggest that Kuwait, Qatar and Sri Lanka are all close to placing orders, and Pakistani industry sources have said they are confident of making sales in 2014.

These new avenues for defence trade are important, as the US-Pakistan relationship remains under strain. US Secretary of State John Kerry hinted during a recent visit to Pakistan that the US policy of conducting drone strikes inside Pakistan could soon come to an end, and Nawaz Sharif then appealed openly to President Obama for the policy to be discontinued during a visit to the White House in October. However, within days the news of Hakimullah's death underlined the fact that the US is sticking with the controversial strikes, at least for the time being. The jury is out on whether US foreign policy after the drawdown from Afghanistan would be best served by continuing or ending the policy; but in either case it seems that Pakistan's own views on the matter are not central to the White House's deliberations.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
- Pakistan Security SWOT
- Pakistan Defence & Security SWOT
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Defence Budget
- Table: Pakistan's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
- Table: Pakistan's Defence Expenditure - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Armed Forces
- Table: Pakistan's Defence Personnel, 2001-2009 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Pakistan's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Pakistan's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017
- Table: Pakistan's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Table: Pakistan's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn, unless stated)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Economic Activity
- Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Pakistan Security Risk Ratings
Market Overview
- Pakistan Defence Market Overview
- Armed Forces
- Table: Pakistan's Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile Arsenal
- Table: Exports From Pakistan
- Pakistan Security Overview
- Domestic Threats
- Regional Threats
- International Threats
Company Profile
- Air Weapons Complex
- Dr AQ Khan Laboratories
- Heavy Industries Taxila
- Pakistan Aeronautical Complex
- Pakistan Ordnance Factories
Regional Overview
- South Asia Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
- Global Political Outlook
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Sources
- Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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