2014-01-09 07:51:01 - Pakistan Freight Transport Report 2014 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
We have downgraded our full-year real GDP growth forecast for Pakistan for the current fiscal year (FY2013/14 [July-June]) to 3.4% from 4.0% previously, as the macroeconomic environment readjusts painfully due to a general tightening in fiscal and monetary policy. We continue to believe that this tightening in policy is necessary in order to correct the significant structural imbalances in the economy, which should eventually put the economy on a much stronger footing and thus higher growth trajectory over the medium-to-long term. As such, while we have revised our near-term growth expectations, we have kept our FY2014/15 growth forecast at 4.0%, which implies a strong bounce in economic activity following this year of transition.
Our recent downgrades centre on lowering our growth
expectations for domestic private demand, namely private consumption and gross fixed capital formation growth. While the revisions made were fairly marginal, they have had a notable impact on the headline rate of growth as domestic demand makes up the lion´s share of the Pakistani economy, equivalent to approximately 111% of GDP over the past five years.
We have lowered our projections for private consumption and gross fixed-capital formation growth to 2.0% and 1.5%, from 2.8% and 2.0%, respectively. The consequent downward revision in our import growth forecast as domestic demand weakens, however, provided a slight statistical cushion for headline growth.
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