2013-09-17 09:01:17 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
First gas from Papua New Guinea's greenfield PNG LNG facility, the country's first gas export project, is due online in 2014. There continues to movement on other projects and we could soon see decisions regarding an expansion of export capacity beyond the first two trains, which are due online next year. Gas projects will also offer some relief to liquids, and condensate from the PNG LNG project will give oil production a temporary boost.
The main trends and developments we highlight for PNG's oil and gas sector are:
* The most significant development in Papua New Guinea (PNG)'s oil and gas sector was movement on the long-stalled, InterOil-led liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. While it appeared that Royal Dutch Shell, long
interested in PNG's upstream, was to partner with InterOil in developing the Elk and Antelope fields, ExxonMobil emerged as the winner. It was reported in May that InterOil and partner Pacific LNG entered into exclusive negotiations for the gas resources on PRL 15.
* Options under consideration include using resources on PRL 15 to support development of a third train at the PNG LNG project or developing a standalone Gulf LNG project as per InterOil's original development concept. We now view a greenfield Gulf LNG project as less likely, but we have priced in additional volumes from a third train at PNG LNG from 2017 as we now view this as the most likely scenario. However, given the lack of certainty, we could again alter our forecast.
* Overall, our view remains largely optimistic on PNG gas sector, which we expect will expand beyond the initial two trains due online from the Exxon-led PNG LNG project in 2014. First gas from the project could treble PNG's exports and boost its GDP by at least 20%. At the time of writing the project was 80% complete despite a 20% cost overrun. We highlight the increase in costs, which was slightly offset by a capacity expansion, as a risk to the profitability of future projects.
* Independent of negotiations with InterOil, Exxon and Oil Search continue their appraisal of both the Highlands and the P'nyang gas fields. It is hoped that either site or possibly both will contain the resources to support an expansion of capacity at PNG LNG.
* With a weak outlook for liquids production from existing fields, many of which are mature, the long-term outlook for oil production is questionable. Some upside comes from condensate production as part of the PNG LNG project as well as from the Mandana discovery, but falling output elsewhere will make the recovery in volumes only a temporary development.
* PNG remains strategically located for exports to Asia and currently benefits from significantly lower development costs than projects in nearby Australia. This should help make PNG gas competitive, even as new projects come online across East Africa, Russia and elsewhere targeting the Asian LNG market.
* Rising competition in the LNG market in Asia, as well as from new sources of supply abroad, could undermine the commercial viability of greenfield export projects in PNG. This is particularly true in the face of project delays and significant cost overruns impacting current developments. Alongside longstanding concerns regarding the country's business environment, notwithstanding recent signs of improvement, these above-ground concerns remain downside risk to the sector's outlook. At the time of writing we assumed an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US$103 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$101/bbl in 2014.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673246_papua_new_guinea_oil_gas_report_q4_20 ..
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Papua New Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Papua New Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Papua New Guinea Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Papua New Guinea Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Papua New Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Papua New Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Papua New Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Papua New Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
- The Upstream Leaders
- Resource-Rich Countries Hit By Country Structure
- Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
- Downstream Support
- Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Papua New Guinea - Risk/Reward Ratings
- PNG Upstream Rating
- PNG Downstream Rating
- Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing and Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Papua New Guinea - Upstream Projects Database
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Downstream Projects
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Pipelines
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - PNG Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Upstream Players
- Table: Downstream Player
- Oil Search
- Other Summaries
- Global Energy Market Overview
- Table: Global Oil Consumption Estimates, mn b/d
Global Industry Overview
- Asia Regional Overview
- Energy Shifts
- Pacific Leads Liquefaction Boom, With Challenges
- Table: Expansion Of Liquefaction Capacity In Australia & PNG
- LNG Demand Stays Buoyant
- Unconventional Rescue
Full Table of Contents is available at:
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.