2013-01-15 13:56:19 - Peru Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
A growing consumer base, significant commodity wealth and substantial investment opportunities at the sector level underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America over the medium term.
However, our below-consensus view on China means that we expect Peru to be hit hard through the trade and investment channels over the coming quarters, resulting in slower real GDP growth, a wider current account deficit and a modestly weaker currency.
Major Forecast Changes
Strong economic activity data, particularly fixed investment, has prompted us to revise up our 2012 growth forecast for Peru to 6.1% from 5.6% previously. That said, we continue to expect a weak external environment, particularly a continued slowdown in China, to weigh on economic
activity over the coming quarters, such that we maintain our 2013 real GDP growth forecast of 5.2%.
A continued deterioration in trade data in recent months has caused us to revise down our current account forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to reflect wider deficits of 3.5% and 4.3% of GDP respectively.
We have revised our fiscal forecasts for Peru to reflect modest nominal surpluses of 1.4% of GDP in 2012 and 0.5% in 2013, rather than modest deficits previously. Indeed, we expect revenue growth to remain relatively strong over the coming years, while expenditure growth will be more modest than we previously expected, in line with the relatively measured approach adopted by President Ollanta Humala since his inauguration.
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