2014-01-25 16:32:37 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Peru Freight Transport Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. While we expect real GDP growth to level off at around 5.0% during our forecast period, below its recent trend, significant mineral wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and a growing consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years.
Further upside comes from the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network, which BMI believes will help boost the country's freight transport volumes, through providing easier routes to market. However, we caution that perhaps the plan is overly ambitious, and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date. According
to Peru's transport and communications minister, Carlos Paredes Rodrigues, US$22bn is set to be invested in the Latin American country's transport and communications sectors by 2016.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/763986_peru_freight_transport_report_q1_2014 ..
Headline Industry Data
* We expect growth of 4.3% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 21.2mn tonnes in 2014.
* We predict air freight volume to increase 6.9%, to 299,000 tonnes in 2014.
* We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 3.3%, to 1.02n tonnes-km in 2014.
Key Industry Trends
Committee Approves Boliviamar Maritime Convention
The Peruvian Congress' Foreign Relations Committee in September approved the Boliviamar maritime convention, which is expected to provide Bolivia with an outlet to the Pacific Ocean through the Peruvian Port of Ilo. The move comes as the Bolivian government tries to reduce its dependence on Chilean ports, which handle 80% of Bolivian exports.
Paving The Way To Trade Growth
BMI believes that the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network will help boost the country's freight transport volumes, through providing easier routes to market. However, we caution that perhaps the plan is overly ambitious, and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date.
Governments Plan Inter-Oceanic Railroad
The governments of Brazil, Peru and Bolivia intend to construct an inter-oceanic railroad between Peru's Pacific coast and Brazil's Atlantic coast, reports Agencia Brasil. The railroad is aimed at facilitating trade activities between the countries.
Lufthansa Cargo's Takes Positive Step With New Lima Route
Lufthansa Cargo's latest addition to its global route - Lima, Peru - is a positive step for the company amid a tough operating environment. Latin America has reported the second-highest growth figures in the 2013 year-to-date (y-t-d), according to IATA data, after front-runner the Middle East. Lufthansa Cargo faces stiff competition in the Middle East in the form of Etihad and Emirates, making Peru a smart tactical addition to the company's international coverage.
Key Risks To Outlook
Further upside comes from the possibility that a delayed rebalancing of the Chinese economy could result in a continuation of the trend of robust external demand for Peru's mining exports, which would boost freight transport volumes. These factors would likely bolster Peru's economy in the coming years, posing major upside risks to our real GDP growth forecast of 4.9% for 2014.
On the downside, a fall off in Chinese demand for raw materials would hit Peruvian exports hard.
Report Table of Contents:
The table of contents for this report is available upon request.
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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