2013-12-30 04:37:35 - Fast Market Research recommends "Philippines Freight Transport Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Despite some signs of life in the Philippines' trade outlook, we caution that a relatively middling outlook for demand from the world's largest economies, as well as the cyclical nature of global semiconductor demand, suggest that an export recovery will likely be transitory. On the other side of the ledger, we note that the Philippines will remain somewhat beholden to hot money flows as speculation over US monetary policy continues to run high, and that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may look to adjust its policy measures in kind.
Philippine exports have shown some nascent signs of life recently, posting their second straight monthly year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion in July 2013. Indeed, the 2.3% y-o-y growth in outward bound shipments marked
the first time since December 2012 that exports expanded for at least two straight months, reflecting their poor performance throughout the course of H1 2013. Electronics exports in particular proved to be a key outperformer in July 2013, jumping by a healthy 11.2% y-o-y following a 2.2% contraction in June 2013.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754625_philippines_freight_transport_report_ ..
With that in mind, our forecasts for 2014 across the freight modes are healthy with air freight set to be the outperformer this year with y-o-y growth anticipated to come in at 5.66% to reach 755,000 tonnes.
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.66% to 755,000 tonnes.
* 2014 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 3.30% to 29.05mn tonnes.
* 2014 Port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 5.30% to 22.14mn tonnes.
* 2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.75%, with exports growing 5.50% compared with import growth of 6.00%.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Table: Cargo, 2011-2018
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
- Road & Rail Freight
- Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
- Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011
- Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011
Industry Trends And Developments
- International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI) - Q1 2014
- MCC Transport - Q1 2014
- Political Risk Analysis
- MNLF Seeking Larger Role
- Security, Peace Deal In Question
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Table: Table: Philippines Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Variance Across Product Markets
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
- Economic Analysis
- External Malaise A Drag, But Support Seen In Remittances
- Investment Boom On Solid Footing
- GDP Upgrade Well Deserved, But Watch Out For Risks
- Expenditure Breakdown
- Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.