2013-03-02 15:33:56 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: The Polish pharmaceutical market contracted severely in 2012 due to harsh pricing measures and strict margins imposed on wholesalers, pharmaceutical manufacturers and retailers. Moreover, over the course of the year, the burden of pharmaceutical spending shifted onto the Polish consumer, as the harsher reimbursement regime caused a rise in private contributions to prescription payments. We forecast a return to growth in 2013, driven by demand for hospitals and private consumption growth as the Polish government entrenches cuts to drug expenditure. We expect strong growth in the medium-to-long term as Poland's economy diversifies and aligns with developed countries. The growth of private medical companies is a positive development in the Polish healthcare market, and the introduction of voluntary health
insurance could lead to the private sector playing a greater role in healthcare provision.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541261_poland_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_rep ..
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: PLN31.37bn (US$9.64bn) in 2012 to PLN32.26bn (US$9.60bn) in 2013; 2.8% in local currency terms and -0.4% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: PLN115.85bn (US$35.61bn) in 2012 to PLN121.08bn (US$36.04bn) in 2013; +4.5% in local currency terms and 1.2% in US dollar terms.
Risk/Reward Rating: Poland's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q213 is unchanged from the previous quarter. This is the case for all other countries in BMI's proprietary system, which ranks pharmaceutical markets according to their attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. A minor re-weighting of one of the RRR components is being implemented to improve the tool, and the adjusted scores for all markets will be published in the Q313 updates of the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports. Poland has a RRR score of 56.9 out of 100, making it the fourth most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe.
Key Trends And Developments
The National Health Fund (NFZ) will be decentralised in H113 with regional authorities taking a greater role in commissioning healthcare services.
The health insurance market is scheduled to be liberalised with services previously not covered by NFZ insurance. It will be covered through additional voluntary health insurance. Private health insurers will be able to compete with the NFZ for premiums. In order to even up the market, tax breaks, allowances and deductions will be introduced to encourage uptake.
The number of prescriptions receiving no subsidy at all from the NFZ increased significantly in 2012. Private healthcare spending in Poland is expected to continue rising in line with incomes. The role of the private sector and the potential introduction of voluntary health insurance as a supplement to the NFZ suggest market dynamics will be driven increasingly by private consumption, and government provisioning will retreat.
Consolidation within private healthcare will continue, as LuxMed buys up MegaMed's clinics. Privatisation of debt-laden hospitals by municipalities will continue in 2013.
Owing to the margin limits imposed on reimbursable drugs, retail pharmacy sales have dipped significantly, with many individual pharmacy stores closing down. Pharmacy chains have been able to weather the conditions well; they benefit from greater discounts when buying wholesale.
BMI Economic View: Our forecast for 2.6% real GDP growth in 2013 is above the consensus figure of 2.1%. A mild eurozone recovery - we forecast real GDP growth in the bloc will pick up from -0.6% in 2012 to 1.0% in 2013 - will support export demand and boost investment inflows, while Poland's central bank is likely to ease monetary policy by 75-100 basis points over the next 12 months, aiding domestic demand. That said, domestic demand will be constrained by a weak household sector and government spending, dragging economic growth well below its 2001-2011 average of 4.0%.
BMI Political View: We broadly expect Poland's political risk profile to improve over the course of our 10- year forecast horizon, as the country assumes greater responsibility at the regional and international level and the domestic political environment continues to mature. Our core scenario envisages Poland emerging as a solid 'middle power' of Europe. A strong macroeconomic outlook, coupled with greater maturity on the part of domestic policymakers, will facilitate this general progression over the years ahead.
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