Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - new country guide report published
2012-12-14 14:52:11 - Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on

We continue to expect Slovakia´s economy to expand by 2.5% in real terms in 2012, slowing to 2.0% in 2013, with growth largely driven by export performance. Household and government consumption are expected to remain weak due to austerity conditions and structural unemployment.

While fiscal slippage risks remain, we have revised our forecasts for Slovakia´s fiscal deficit following the release of



the government´s 2013 budget, and now forecast a deficit equivalent to 3.0% of GDP in 2013, from a previous forecast of 3.3%, thereby fulfilling the EU fiscal treaty criteria.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our forecasts for Slovakia´s current account balance in 2012 and 2013 on the back of weaker external demand.

We expect Slovakia´s current account to post a surplus in 2012, coming in at 0.7% of GDP, from a previous forecast of 1.7%, and 0.1% of GDP in 2013, from a previous forecast of 1.5%.

We have revised up our real GDP growth projections for 2012, which we now forecast at 2.5%. However, drilling down into the breakdown of expenditure confirms our view that net exports is now the sole remaining driver of growth for Slovakia, with household and government consumption flat.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risk To Growth Outlook: Slovakia´s heavy dependence on the external sector for its economic growth presents a key downside risk to our forecasts. Indeed, a significant slowdown in external demand, in particular from Germany, would impact heavily on Slovakia´s export-led economic recovery.

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Mike King
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