Greece Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Greece Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published
2013-01-01 00:21:53 - Greece Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

The Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2012 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation take a damaging toll. The prospect of further spending cuts and tax hikes will ensure that demonstrations and national strikes remain a key feature of the political landscape over the medium term. Internal devaluation will be a slow and drawn-out process, which will



ensure that the current account deficit will narrow only gradually, keeping pressure on foreign financing over the medium term.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our 2013 real GDP growth forecast to -2.7% from -0.3% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks To Deficit Forecasts: The severity of the fiscal consolidation programme and the public backlash mean that the scope for slippage will remain pronounced

Downside Risks To Economic Growth Forecasts: Should Greece decide to leave the eurozone, the recession would deepen in the short-to-medium term as the banking system would implode and the cost of energy and food imports would skyrocket.

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