Iraq Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Iraq Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published
2013-01-01 00:35:57 - Iraq Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

Political progress in Iraq will remain slow. A broken power-sharing agreement, withdrawal of US troops and foreign intervention into northern Iraq all present risks to underlying stability, and the country risks falling back into a civil war. The Iraqi economy will be among the fastest growing in the world over the coming five years, driven by an aggressive increase in



oil production and the start of large-scale infrastructure projects.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our forecasts for real GDP growth, and now project the economy expanding 10.5% in 2012, down from our previous forecast of 12.0%. As a result of faster-than-expected decrease in food prices, we revised down our forecast for inflation, which we see averaging 6.5% in 2012, down from 6.8% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

Attacks on oil infrastructure due to terrorism or acts of political protest present downside risks to our growth forecasts. A breakdown of the coalition government could lead to a period of pronounced instability and slower growth.

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