Market Report, "Greece Tourism Report Q1 2013", published

2013-01-01 05:53:11 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Greece Tourism Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

The Greece Tourism Report considers the prospects for the tourism sector over the longer term but focuses heavily on major short-term issues affecting the sector. In 2011, there was a strong rebound for inbound tourism to Greece, despite strikes and protests against government austerity measures eroding Greece's risk profile. Hospitality sector prices in key tourist locations have reportedly fallen sharply

in an effective internal devaluation, illustrating one underlying issue behind this uptick in inbound tourism. Political unrest in North Africa was another reason, as it resulted in a shift in tourism demand, providing a short-term boost to Greek tourism. Despite this, BMI believes that a grim outlook for the eurozone - the country's key source region - will undermine prospects for Greek tourism in 2012 but recovery is expected from 2013. A full-blown economic depression in Greece will also ensure domestic tourism remains extremely weak.

Full Report Details at

Using official data on the number of foreign visitors to Greece, the report also analyses the changing dynamics of major source markets, with Russia, for example, becoming increasingly important in the context of inbound tourism to Greece, though still not rivalling Germany and the UK, which are two of the most important source markets.

Latest figures on non-resident arrivals in H112 show the extent of the downturn in the tourism sector, with visitors numbers down 9% year-on-year (y-o-y). This was a slight improvement though on a 12% yo- y fall in Q112. After a considerable increase in Russian tourism to Greece in the previous two years, the number of tourists grew a more moderate 8% y-o-y in H112. A number of key source markets, such as France, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Italy and the Netherlands, all recorded significant y-o-y falls in arrivals. One relatively important source market that stands out against these negative trends is the UK, with the number of arrivals up a sizeable 16% y-o-y in H112. More recent data on the number of international tourist arrivals at the largest 15 airports during the period January-September 2012 underline weakness in the tourism sector, with visitors down by 2.5% y-o-y, but this is a slight improvement on the decline in H112.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

? BMI has revised down its growth forecast for foreign visitor arrivals to Greece in 2012 to -5.5% from -1.5% previously. A modest recovery in foreign tourism is expected from 2013, although growth has also been edged down slightly. ? BMI's real GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone have been lowered marginally for 2012 to -0.7% from -0.6%, rising to only 0.6% growth (down from 0.9% previously) in 2013. This will hit inbound tourism, but this could recover as eurozone growth picks up to 1.4% in the following year. ? Ongoing unrest in the capital continues to hit tourism badly, with foreign arrivals at the country's largest airport, Athens International Airport (AIA), down markedly y-o-y in the first three quarters of 2012. There are signs of an improving trend, however. ? The likelihood that the takeover of Olympic Air by Aegean Airlines - announced in October - will get the green light from the competition authorities has increased.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Greece Tourism Industry SWOT
- Greece Political SWOT
- Greece Economic SWOT
- Greece Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals, 2010-2017
- Accommodation
- Table: Hotels Data, 2010-2017 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
- Expenditure
- Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2010-2017
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Key Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl), 2011-2014
Market Overview - Hospitality
- Table: Key Players In Greece's Hospitality Sector
- Accommodation Developments
- Gaming
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Greece's Security Risk Ratings
- Europe Security Overview
- Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Europe In A Global Context
- Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017
- Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y, 2011-2014
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%)
Company Profiles
- Aegean Airlines
- Grecotel
- Hilton Worldwide
- Olympic Air
- Regency Entertainment
Country Snapshot
- Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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