Brazil Retail Report Q1 2013 - New Report Available

2013-02-28 12:17:38 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Brazil Retail Report Q1 2013"

The Brazilian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Brazil's economic outlook of elevated non-performing loans and high household debt levels.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Brazilian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis

and declining Chinese import demand on the Brazilian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Brazilian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Brazilian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 10% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes first in BMI's Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for Risk.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541162_brazil_retail_report_q1_2013.aspx


Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by more than 40% between 2013 and 2016, from US$112.02bn to US$157.47bn. Hypermarkets and supermarkets have gradually taken market share from traditional stores in recent years, with the latter accounting for more than 62% of MGR sales in 2013.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the Growth Acceleration Programme, aimed at increasing infrastructure-related investment via tax incentives and large public and private investments. The planned measures, if successful, could ease retailers' logistical problems, which are mainly caused by poor road networks in many parts of the country.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* BMI has revised down its 2012 real GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 2.4% on the back of weak private consumption and industrial production data. Combined with continued infrastructure project delays, this points to a more modest increase in economic activity during H212 than we had been expecting. That said, with significant stimulus in the pipeline and construction in advance of the 2014 World Cup set to bolster growth in several sectors, our real GDP growth forecast for 2013 is 3.7%.
* While BMI maintains its view that significant fiscal and monetary stimulus will precipitate a pickup in private consumption over the coming quarters, we believe that private banks' concerns about elevated non-performing loans, high household debt levels, reduced purchasing power and weak consumer confidence mean that such a development will be more modest than we previously expected. We therefore estimate private consumption to have contributed 0.9 percentage points (pp) to GDP in 2012, down slightly from our previous forecast of 1.0pp, growing by just 1.4% in real terms in 2012.
* Retail sales in Brazil rose for a fourth consecutive month in September 2012 at a modest pace, latest government data showed, reinforcing the idea of a slow economic recovery in Latin America's largest economy. Retail sales volumes rose 0.3% from August, after a 0.2% increase the previous month.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
- Brazil Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Brazil Political SWOT
- Brazil Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Sectors, 2013f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Brazil's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Brazil Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets, 2004-2011
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2004-2011 (US$bn)
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2004-2011 (BRLbn)
- Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format - 2011
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%)
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Brazil Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
- AV Devices
- Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
- Mobile Communications
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Electronics Market
- Table: Consumer Electronics Sales Overview, 2009-2016 (US$mn))
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Brazil Autos Industry SWOT
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Sales
- Table: Brazil Autos Sales By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Production
- Table: Brazil Autos Production By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Brazil Autos Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=541162&dt=t

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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