2012-09-06 08:23:10 - Qatar Power Report Q1 2012 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com

BMI View: Unlikely as it may seem, Qatar has struggled to ensure adequate electricity supply in spite of its vast natural gas resources. The state-controlled power industry remains committed to the use of gas as its primary energy source, in spite of the growing demands of its many export projects. There is renewables potential in the country and, over the long-term, it may flirt with the possibility of nuclear power. In the meantime, it is a race to build gas-fired generation in time to meet the rapidly growing demands of an expanding population.

Key trends and recent developments in the Qatari electricity market include:

• Qatari power generation in 2011 is put by BMI at 24.3TWh, up an estimated 10.2%

 

 

on the previous year. All of the growth is contributed by the gas-fired segment, which constitutes the entire power generation segment in Qatar. During the period 2011-2021, Qatars overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 7.4%, reaching 48.2TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 7.4% gain in gas-fired generation. Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years, with all power projects currently planned or under construction using gas.
• Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 17.2%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.1% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 1.53mn to 1.74mn during the period 2011-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 23.4TWh in 2011 to 33.2TWh by 2016, rising further to 44.7TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 7.4%, but slowing later in the decade to an average 6.2% in 2016-2021.
• Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which broadly matches the underlying demand trend, Qatar has a potential modest near-term power supply shortfall. An unchanged percentage of transmission and distribution losses, wavering at around 7.5% over our extended forecast period, will do little to help balance the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is put at 0.8TWh, and could have been eradicated by 2021. The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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