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Recent Study: Algeria Agribusiness Report Q1 2014


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2013-12-14 10:16:11 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Algeria Agribusiness Report Q1 2014"

With wheat and dairy production consistently short of consumption, Algeria is a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food self-sufficiency is helping the grains and dairy sectors to rebound. Increases in government support will be positive for productivity and product quality in the medium term. However, the country will remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. Algeria is increasingly expanding trading links with countries such as Brazil and India, especially for dairy and beef products, and away from its traditional suppliers such as France.

Key Views

* Wheat consumption growth to 2017: 13.3% to 10.1mn tonnes. Wheat consumption will be mainly supported by population growth.
* Milk

production growth to 2016/17: 19.1% to 3.8mn tonnes. Our projections are based on the government's support for the sector and its plan to develop it by improving breeding methods as well as restructuring and further privatising segments of the agriculture industry.
* Barley production growth to 2016/17: 50.0% to 2.0mn tonnes. Our forecast errs on the side of caution. Significant changes to the size of the harvested area from one year to the next are a fairly regular occurrence in Algeria, reflecting the limited availability of water and irrigation.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$2.47bn in 2014 (growth to average 4.0% annually between 2013 and 2017).
* 2014 real GDP growth: 4.4% (up from 3.2% in 2013; predicted to average 3.4% over 2013-2017).
* Consumer price inflation: 6.2% in 2014 (up from 5.5% in 2013; predicted to average 5.1% over 2013-2017).

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723564_algeria_agribusiness_report_q1_2014.a ..

Key Developments

Laiterie Soummam, one of the leading dairies in Algeria, plans to phase out its use of imported milk powder and use only domestically produced liquid milk by 2016. According to the company, which started to collect milk from producers in 2009, liquid domestic milk accounts for 40% of the total amount used in its products, with the rest coming from imported milk powder. We see this goal as overly optimistic and believe Algeria's imports will remain significant on the back of robust growth in dairy demand, especially for dry whole milk powder and non-fat dry milk powder.

The government will continue to provide economic and technical assistance and incentives to improve grain yields and quality in 2013/14. Assistance includes interest-free loans for seeds, irrigation, equipment and other inputs. Government efforts to increase yields have proven effective; however, current Algerian wheat yields still lag significantly behind some other producers in the region, such as Egypt and Zambia.

BMI forecasts consumer price inflation (CPI) in Algeria to remain subdued in 2013 and 2014. CPI came in at 3.3% y-o-y in August 2013, compared with 7.2% y-o-y in August 2012. Food prices (which account for 43.1% of the consumer price basket) were the major contributor to the deceleration in the headline print. Food price inflation has been decelerating in recent months, averaging 5.0% since the beginning of the year (January-August), compared with 12.5% y-o-y average over 2012. Much of the decline in food prices has been triggered by slow growth in the prices of bread and cereals owing to favourable soil conditions and harvests in 2012/13 and 2013/14.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: Algeria Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Algeria Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Algeria Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Algeria Whole Milk Powder Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Algeria Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Algeria Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Algeria Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Algeria Whole Milk Powder Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: Algeria Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Algeria Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Algeria Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Algeria Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Algeria Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Algeria Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Africa GM Outlook
- Africa Machinery Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Fish
- Table: Fish Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Oils & Fats
- Table: Oils & Fats Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Margarine Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Processed Foods
- Table: Dairy Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Algeria - Butter - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Beer Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Soft Drinks

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=723564&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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