2013-12-08 16:44:13 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Argentina Retail Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Retail markets are expanding quickly in light of rapidly increasing disposable income, population growth (especially in urban areas), aspirational purchasing, easier access to credit and the development of a modern retail infrastructure. We believe that all of these factors will encourage a pronounced rise in household spending, particularly in luxury statement items and non-essentials such as clothing, household appliances and furnishings, and personal care.
The new Argentina retail report provides an extensive and comprehensive forecast of various retail indicators including household spending, and headline total spending across each retail subsector, household income and employment forecasts, demographic forecasts, and a detailed breakdown of household and per capita spending across a large number of retail areas including food & drink, healthcare and insurance,
consumer electronics, toys, pets, gardens, household goods, and a number of other subsectors.
Full Report Details at
An expanding population, the rise in disposable income and a taste for luxury items are key factors behind the forecast growth in Argentina's retail sales. Other positive factors such as the availability of consumer credit are likely to see the value of the retail segment increase from ARS76.17bn (US$24.08bn) in 2013 to ARS90.08bn (US$28.48bn) by 2017, a rise of 18.3%.
Latest data show that retail sales in Argentina increased 19.70% y-o-y in July 2013. Month on month, the July increase was a seasonally adjusted 27.7%, up from 30.2% in June, whose figure was revised up from 26.2%.
However, we do note some drawbacks for potential investors in the Argentine retail sector. Caution about the underlying strength of the Argentine economy helps explain why the country's retail sector has not been the target of greater investment, despite the very high growth rates currently on offer.
Moreover, in February 2013, in an effort to rein in inflation, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's administration froze supermarket prices for 60 days, which was later extended to four months. On June 1, the prices of 500 goods, ranging from cooking oil to sodas, cereals, wines, hair, beer and toiletries, were frozen. Factors such as these can deter would-be entrants.
While many are still attracted by the lucrative opportunities presented by Argentina's rising household expenditures, drawbacks are undeniable. For example, the rapid sales growth prompted Carrefour and US- based Walmart to focus significant resources in Argentina. However, these investments have generally been lower than what might have been expected, emphasising that multinational retailers remain sceptical as to whether the pace of expansion was sustainable.
Key BMI forecasts include:
* We expect total household spending to be US$267bn over 2013.
* Food & non-alcoholic drinks spending will reach more than US$90bn in 2013, while household & utilities spending will top US$34bn.
* More than 1.2mn houses will be in the US$10,000-plus income bracket by the end of 2013, according to our forecasts, and we expect this figure to almost triple by 2018 when nearly 3.5mn households will qualify.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Headline Retail Forecast
- Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
- Table: Retail Sector Spending, (% of total) 2011-2018
- Table: Retail Sector Spending (% GDP) 2011-2018
- Table: Headline Retail Sector Expenditure 2011-2018
- Retail Sector Forecast
- Food, Drink And Tobacco
- Table: Food, Drink And Tobacco spending, 2011-2018
- Clothing And Footwear
- Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
- Household Goods
- Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
- Personal Care And Effects
- Table: Personal Care And Effects Spending 2011-2018
- Household Numbers And Income Forecast
- Table: Household Income And Numbers, 2011-2018
- Table: Labour Statistics, 2011-2018
- Demographic Forecast
- Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Older Children And Young Teens, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Older Teens, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: 21yrs+ 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
- Table: Population: Urban and Rural, 2011-2018
- Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Table: Argentina - GDP By Expenditure
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Retail Risk Reward Ratings
- Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- OTC Pharmaceuticals
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
- Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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