2013-09-20 08:59:42 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Argentina Shipping Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the Argentine port sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds, as well as internal difficulties in the form of rising inflation and labour unrest. We continue to expect that Argentine real GDP growth will bottom in 2013, forecasting 1.8% growth this year after 1.9% growth last year, as a currency devaluation, which we expect to occur in H213, sends inflation higher, and net exports drag on real GDP growth. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.9% next year on the back of a rebound in private consumption and less of a drag from net exports.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673268_argentina_shipping_report_q4_2013.asp ..
* Total tonnage volume at the Port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 2.5% in 2013, to reach 11.3mn tonnes. Box handling at the port will rise by 2.2%, to 1.1mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
* The Port of Bahia Blanca will see 4.2% growth in volume, to 14.6mn tonnes in 2013. Box handling at the port will also grow by 12.1%, to 34,933 TEUs.
Key Industry Trends
Strike Cripples Rosario: Operations at the port of Rosario were stalled following strike action on 20 May 2013 by port workers who were protesting over wages. The strike slowed exports from the country's main grains hub.
Shipping Lines Shifting to Montevideo: Shipping lines are shifting their calls from the Argentine port of Buenos Aires to the Uruguayan port of Montevideo, due to rising costs at Buenos Aires.
Risks To Outlook
The key risks to our outlook are on the downside. We maintain our view that Argentina faces strong economic headwinds: soaring inflation, fiscal profligacy and growing government intervention, which means the Argentine economy will struggle to sustain its current growth trajectory, as investors become increasingly cautious of the economy.
A lack of investment in port infrastructure has resulted in frequent bottlenecks and delays at ports. Argentina has a weak financial system and relatively weak legal and regulatory frameworks. A high level of perceived corruption damages the appeal of doing business in the country, possibly acting as a deterrent to foreign port operators.
Strikes are frequent at Argentine ports, and these present further downside risks to our throughput forecasts. We caution that strikes could impact upon future growth at the country's ports should shipping companies become wary with regards to the market.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Port Of Buenos Aires Throughput
- Port Of Bahia Blanca Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners
- Argentina Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
- Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
- Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Argentina - Gdp By Expenditure
- Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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