2013-03-02 15:27:26 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Bolivia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2013"

BMI View: While we continue to expect gas production to rise over much of our forecast period, from 2018 we remain uncertain as to whether new production will be sufficient to offset declining volumes elsewhere. This is particularly true given the uncertainty that pervades the business environment, which may have an impact on both investment and production. Although condensate volumes from gas production may support a surprise to the upside for liquids volumes, our oil forecast remains bearish. Overall, we expect oil output to trend downwards - notwithstanding occasional recoveries in output due to condensates production - as existing crude fields move towards depletion.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bolivia's oil and gas sector:


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* The awarding of licences to Petrobras and BG Group in December 2012 will draw much-needed exploration and production (E&P) activity into Bolivia. However, it is important to note that five areas were actually put out to tender by the Bolivian government, with licences for Madre de Dios, La Guardia, and Alegria going unawarded.
* Investment in Bolivia's upstream sector continues to be undermined by the country's poor business environment. Disappointing interest in exploration licences targeting five areas around the country led to the cancellation of a licensing round launched in early 2012. In September 2012, YPFB annulled the exploration rounds, with the UK's BG Group, Petrobras, and a local Repsol subsidiary the only bidders. The Bolivian national oil company (NOC) said it would relaunch the round and work to attract additional interest.
* While we forecast gas production will rise over the short term before peaking at 22bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2018, we believe inadequate upstream investment and declining reserves will lead to a fall in gas output in the years that follow. Resource nationalism and policy uncertainty continue to discourage the upstream investment necessary to significantly raise our outlook for Bolivia's oil and gas sector.
* At present, rising volumes should allow Bolivia to meet its export requirements to Brazil and Argentina - its main export markets. However, we highlight longer term downside risks to the country's revenues and exports volumes as these countries increasingly pursue the development of their own domestic reserves. At present, however, it appears demand from Argentina is set to increase as it faces its own challenges in the energy sector and looks to replace more costly imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) with Bolivian supplies.
* With domestic gas consumption set to expand at an average of nearly 4.7% from 2012 to 2021, eventually rising to 4.0bcm by the end of our forecast period in 2022, meeting export commitments will become more difficult as growth in production slows towards the end of the decade. Indeed, while new exploration and increased investment could surprise to the upside, our current forecasts suggest Bolivia will miss its 24.1bcm per year target - set for 2014.
* While liquids derived from increased gas production could support gains in oil production, we have revised downwards our historical data and long-term forecasts. Although condensate volumes could temporarily boost output, declining volumes from mature oil fields will mean output falls to 45,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2022.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Bolivia Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Bolivia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Bolivia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Bolivia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Bolivia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Bolivia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Bolivia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Bolivia Refining - Production and Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Bolivia Refining - Production and Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Revenues/Import Costs
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Bolivia Risk/Reward Ratings
- Regional Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Upstream: Production Growth Forecasts Reinforce Regional Polarization
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
- Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
- Bolivia Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing and Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Bolivia Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Downstream Projects
- Oil And Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players - Bolivian Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Profile
- Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB)
- Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
- Repsol Bolivia
- Other Companies - Summary
Regional Overview
- Regional Energy Market Overview
Global Industry Overview
- Global Energy Market Overview
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
Appendix
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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