2013-11-02 14:46:34 - Fast Market Research recommends "Chile Shipping Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
We continue to expect that 2013 will see a shift in the Chilean economy, and we forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3% this year and average 4.2% from 2014-2017, below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth is attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result in weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector. This slowdown in demand will have a negative effect on Chile's port and shipping volumes.
Our Asia Country Risk team believes that the likelihood of a rapid and sustained economic downturn in China is rising, posing downside risks to our growth forecast for Chile. Indeed, if
Chinese demand for copper, and thus subsequently copper prices, trend lower than we currently forecast, we could see real GDP growth in Chile head well below 4.0%.
This should have a negative knock-on effect on volumes at the country's ports. Further downside risk is presented by a series of strikes that took place in the Chilean ports sector in 2012 and in Q113. Additional strike action could hit port throughput.
Full Report Details at
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Port of Valparaiso tonnage throughput forecast to grow 11.2%.
* 2013 Port of San Antonio tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.8%.
* 2013 Port of Valparaiso twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput forecast to grow 11.2%.
* 2013 Port of San Antonio TEU throughput forecast to grow 5.2%.
Key Industry Trends
Valparaiso Port To Double In Size: Valparaiso will double in size by 2017, following an investment from the Spanish company OHL Concesiones of almost US$350mn for the construction of a second terminal. OHL Concesiones won a 30-year concession to build and run the terminal.
Ports Disrupted Due To Strikes: In June 2013 a national strike occurred across the country, affecting operations at ports like Valparaiso, Antofagasta and San Antonio. Workers in major cities protested in solidarity with the student movement, Wednesday, by barricading ports and copper mines.
CSAV In The Black In Q213: CSAV reported net income of US$34.3mn during the second quarter of 2013, a figure that compares well with losses of US$140.2m recorded during the same period of 2012. The profit for the second quarter of 2013 includes an extraordinary gain of US$74mn, mainly explained by the pre-payment of the debt the company had with American Family Life Assurance Company (AFLAC).
Risks To Outlook
The main downside risk to our outlook for the Chilean port sector is the possibility of a hard landing in the Chinese economy. This would result in a steep fall-off in Chinese demand for Chilean dry bulk exports such as copper, significantly hitting port throughput.
A further concern is that the country will not be able to improve its port infrastructure in order to keep up with demand. Infrastructure deficits limit expansion. If Chile does not improve efficiency and capacity there is risk that, as its ports begin to reach the limits of their capacity coming up to 2014, potential importers will look elsewhere for their supplies.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Port Of San Antonio Throughput
- Port Of Valparaiso Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2004-2011
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2004-2011
- Chile Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Compania Chilena de Navegacion Interoceanica
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
- Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
- Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Chile - Economic Activity
- Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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