2013-02-25 09:54:38 - New Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "China Metals Report Q2 2013"
From 2012 to 2017 the metals industry in China will be facing a period of steady decline in demand and supply growth. On the demand side, we are expecting a sharp slowdown in Chinese fixed asset investment that will see a softening in demand across all industrial metals. We expect construction activity in China to moderate significantly in the coming quarters despite a temporary boost from infrastructure stimulus packages. We forecast Chinese real GDP growth of 7.5% in 2013, compared to Bloomberg consensus forecasts of 8.1%. We believe the boom years of Chinese investment-led growth are over and this will seriously undermine growth of China's metals industry, particularly steel and aluminium.
Full Report Details at
Government plans to significantly
consolidate the metals and mining industries will be watered down in the coming months due to our expectation for a renewed slowdown in China's economy in H213. In order to cushion the negative impact on social welfare and stability of slower growth, central government will support loss-making state industries as a form of social subsidy. To highlight, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently submitted a plan to ease the tax bill on ironore mining companies after several months of declining output following the steady slump in prices. Nonetheless, consolidation will eventually occur due to slumping profit margins, weaker metals prices and a reorientation of China's economy away from fixed asset investment and towards private consumption. Lower prices will squeeze margins and force smaller, inefficient producers out of business.
State-owned companies already have a dominant role in the mining and metals industry and will have an even larger share of the economic pie by 2017.
Despite slowing consumption growth, China will retain structural deficit for key metals such as iron ore, copper and nickel. Imports of metal to the country will continue to grow, albeit at a far slower rate than over the last 10 years. As such, overseas acquisitions of foreign mining assets will continue to be a trend.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Metals SWOT
- Table: China - Refined Nickel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: China - Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: China - Aluminium Production & Consumption Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: China - Refined Lead Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: China - Refined Tin Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: China - Largest Refined Copper Projects
- Table: China - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: China - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: China - Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Strategy Table
- Steel Price Forecast
- Table: BMI Steel Forecast
- Table: Steel Forecast
- Table: China - Largest Listed Metal Producers
- Aluminum Corporation of China
- Table: Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data
- Baoshan Iron & Steel
- Table: Baoshan Iron & Steel - Key Financial Data
- Angang Steel Company
- Table: Angang Steel - Key Financial Data
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks
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