2012-11-17 07:27:05 - New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Croatia Tourism Report Q1 2013"

The Croatia Tourism Report looks at the sector's recent performance and considers the long-term potential of the industry. Foreign tourist arrivals grew by a solid 9.0% in 2011, while domestic tourism picked up but remained relatively weak. In 2012, BMI forecasts a sharp slowdown in the growth of visitor arrivals, at less than 3%, given the bleak outlook for the eurozone, which is the country's key source region.

The report focuses on particular tourism subsectors, such as conference tourism, in which the number of foreign participants was up strongly in 2011. By contrast, the performance of cruise ship tourism in 2011 was relatively subdued, with the number of cruises by foreign vessels going to Croatia down slightly compared with a year

earlier. There is also a burgeoning medical tourism industry, which has had positive effects on extending the tourism season. The focus on diversification of source markets, which is already bearing fruit, should also help counter weak growth in arrivals from some key markets over the next few years.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/499777_croatia_tourism_report_q1_2013.aspx


The most recent provisional data for, January-July 2012, show relative weakness in the tourism sector, with growth in foreign tourist arrivals up by a modest 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). Growth in the corresponding period of 2011 was 9%. The top source markets over the seven-month period were, in order of importance, Germany, Slovenia, Austria and Italy. Growth in arrivals from Germany and Austria was 11% and 4% y-o-y respectively, but there were declines in number of visitors from Slovenia (-3%) and Italy (-10%). Domestic tourism continued to be subdued, with tourist arrivals falling by about 5% yo- y. The figures also disguise sharp monthly movements in foreign tourism, which was down by over 6% y-o-y in February and up by over 20% in March and May. Growth in arrivals was flat in both June and July year-on-year.

The growth figures from the hospitality sector for the first seven months of 2012 are rather muted, with total tourist nights up by 3.8% y-o-y. Growth in foreign and domestic tourist nights was also quite divergent, with foreign nights up 5% y-o-y and domestic resident nights falling by 7% y-o-y.

Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:

* BMI's real GDP growth forecast for 2013 for the eurozone - the key source region - has been lowered marginally to just 0.6% and growth in Germany - the main market for inbound tourism - has been changed to 0.7% in 2012 (revised up from 0.4%) and 1.5% in 2013 (lowered from 2.0%).
* BMI's end-year forecast for the Croatian kuna against the euro in 2012 has been lowered slightly, helping to alleviate pressure on the tourism sector.
* BMI's short-term forecasts for foreign tourist arrivals are unchanged but they have been revised up from 2014 to the end of the newly extended forecast period to 2017.
* Although cruise ship tourism remained flat in the early part of 2012, conference tourism looks set to have another good year.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Croatia Tourism SWOT
- Croatia Political SWOT
- Croatia Economic SWOT
- Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2017
- Accommodation
- Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2017
- Expenditure
- Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2017
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2017
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2017
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
- Table: Key Players In The Croatian Hotel Industry, 2011
- Accommodation Developments
- Gaming
- Infrastructure
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Europe Security Overview
- Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Europe In A Global Context
- Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%)
Company Profiles
- Adris Group
- Croatia Airlines
- Cubus Lux
- Hilton Worldwide
- Liburnia Riviera Hoteli
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=499777&dt=t

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