2013-09-15 09:26:49 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2013 as the country continues upon its rocky transitional period towards democracy. This hit another hurdle in July as popular street protests, with the help of the army, led to the ouster of democratically elected President Morsi and the installation of an interim government. While the markets have responded favourably initially, we believe that gains were overdone and that there will be a pullback as the ongoing problems in Egypt are realised. This uncertainty will, in turn, continue to affect the shipping sector as a worsening economic position (we have revised down our growth outlook from 3.5% to 1.9%) will impact on the country's imports through the ports and on
the rest of the freight transport sector. As a result, our forecasts for the Egyptian rail and air freight, and the ports sector are largely sedate, though the transhipment hub of East Port Said - less reliant on domestic demand - is expected to outperform despite a rocky start to the year with protests in Port Said.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/671001_egypt_freight_transport_report_q4_201 ..
Headline Industry Data
* Air freight handled at Cairo International Airport is set to grow by 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013 to reach 243,800 tonnes. Over the medium term to 2017, growth will average 3.5% per annum.
* Rail cargo will enjoy expansion of 1.8% in 2013, with growth projected to average 1.7% over the medium term.
* Total tonnage throughput at East Port Said is forecast to grow by 8.9% to 32.33mn tonnes in 2013, and to average 9.5% per annum to 2017.
* Total trade is forecast to see a growth in real terms of 0.4% in 2013, picking up in 2014 with an expansion of 6.1%.
Key Industry Trends
Suez Canal Revenues Increase In May 2013: Revenues generated from the Suez Canal grew by 1% y-o-y in May 2013. Revenues hit US$438.1mn, with the increase attributed to an increase in total tonnage volumes and compounded by an increase in toll costs.
RSPA To Offer Safaga Port To Private Sector: The Egyptian Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) in July revealed plans to offer the Safaga Port to the private sector in July 2013 via the ministry of finance's publicprivate partnership unit. The project worth EGP6bn (US$858mn) would be offered to the private sector after the completion of a draft preliminary study, which is being compiled by German consultants Hamburg Ports.
Strike Action Delays Operations Of EgyptAir: The commercial operations of Egypt's national flag carrier EgyptAir have been severely affected as a result of a strike by the ground handling staff at Cairo International Airport's Terminal 3 in May. An unidentified airline official claimed that the carrier was trying to serve all the delayed flights.
Key Risks To Outlook
Risks to our outlook for Egypt stem from both the domestic and global fronts. Domestically, the transition to democracy remains rocky, and it is hard to predict with any accuracy exactly what may happen yet after two years of rapid political change in the country. Globally, Egypt is particularly exposed to the eurozone crisis, and any unexpected escalation in that sphere could impact upon our forecasts.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight - Cairo International Airport And Egypt, 2010-2017
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Inland Waterway
- EgyptAir Cargo
- Egypt Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans)
- Political Risk Analysis
- Table: Political Affiliation Of New Cabinet Members
- Fractured Political Scene To Remain
- Table: Egypt - Political Overview
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
- Global Oil Product Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
- Economic Analysis
- Breakdown By Expenditure
- Table: Egypt - GDP By Expenditure, US$ Terms Breakdown
- Looking Beyond 2013
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Transport Industry
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