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Recent Study: Ghana Agribusiness Report Q1 2014


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2013-12-10 14:34:50 - New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

We continue to expect only minor production growth in Ghana's cocoa sector in the short term owing to harvest delays on the back of dry weather. Over the long term, we forecast relatively pedestrian growth in cocoa production owing to reduced farm revenues and structural concerns in the sector, particularly labour. We forecast mild production growth for Ghanaian corn in 2013/14, the result of high prices during the planting season. Over the long term, however, we believe the country will largely maintain a balanced market. For livestock, we continue to expect Ghana to be a growing net importer of poultry over the long term due to strong demand growth.

Key Forecasts

* Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 19.8% to 988,500 tonnes.

Most of this growth will be due to base effects, although growth will also come as we expect significantly higher cocoa prices over the medium term due to poor supply prospects.
* Corn production growth to 2016/17: 12.0% to 1.85mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
* 2014 real GDP growth: 6.5% (up from 7.4% in 2013; predicted to average 7.1% from 2013 to 2017).
* 2014 central bank policy rate: 15.00% end-2013 (down from 16.00% in 2012).
* 2013 consumer price inflation (average): 10.1% (down from 10.3% in 2012).

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723570_ghana_agribusiness_report_q1_2014.asp ..

Industry Developments

We have revised our forecasts upward and now see LIFFE cocoa prices averaging GBP1,750/tonne in 2014 before averaging higher in the following years. This compares with our previous forecast for an average price of GBP1,550/tonne in 2014. We expect the market to register deficits for the duration of our forecast period out to 2017. Lacklustre global production growth and rising demand growth from major consumers are likely to force prices higher once the 2013/14 harvest begins. Indeed, we are forecasting a larger global deficit in 2013/14 (at 184,000 tonnes) than 2012/13. Towards the end of the five-year forecast period, we expect prices to average slightly lower as supply growth improves due to high prices. This will also be a function of moderating global cocoa demand, particularly from Europe, which represents 35% of global consumption. Overall, we believe higher prices will ultimately stem from a failure of the cocoa industry (particularly West Africa) to increase production by investing sufficiently in replacing ageing trees despite better production incentives.

We forecast mild growth for Ghanaian corn output in 2013/14, the result of high prices during the planting season. Corn in Ghana is generally planted in two phases, with a north main and second crop along with a south main crop. The north crops are generally planted in June and harvested in September, while the south crop is planted in February and harvested in September as well, reflecting a longer planting and growing period. Corn prices in Ghana remained elevated into 2013, which resulted in high plantings for the 2013/14 season. Farmers have also been aided by government assistance in the form of subsidised fertiliser, which has mitigated erratic rains in some parts of the country. The government has also helped to increase technical support for large-scale farming.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Cocoa Outlook
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Uptream Analysis
- Africa Machinery Outlook
- Africa GM Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Fish
- Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Carbonated Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Ghana's Rural and Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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