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Recent Study: Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013

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2013-01-01 05:47:32 - Fast Market Research recommends "Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: Oil and gas exports form one of the key pillars of the Indonesian economy, although the outlook for the sector is becoming increasingly uncertain given dwindling oil reserves in the country's maturing fields. The government has recently put in place measures to incentivise companies to conduct deepwater exploration in a bid to increase total reserves, though a policy to limit exports threatens to decrease upstream interest. Greater domestic consumption leading to higher imports and lesser exports will be a key trend in the years to come.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's Oil and Gas sector are:

Full Report Details at

?? Despite expectations that ExxonMobil's Cepu field, which is to reach peak production of

165,000 barrels per day (b/d) by late 2014, and associated condensate production from Total's South Mahakam project and Chevron's Gendalo-Gehem development will contribute to crude oil and gas liquids production, we have revised down our forecast for 2017 to 896,300b/d. The country will remain a net importer of oil - with 2017 consumption forecast at 1.323mn b/d as domestic electricity demand in the country expands along with economic growth. ?? Steps are being taken to cope with rapidly rising demand for fuel and electricity. The government has been considering scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars - starting on April 1 2012 in Greater Jakarta and later for other parts of Java and Bali. However, these have been met with considerable political opposition. ?? Natural gas production is expected to hit a near-term peak of around 79.9bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012. The country's gas consumption is on the rise and is forecast to reach 55.7bcm by 2017. We expect natural gas exports to rise slightly from 36.3bcm in 2012 to 40.4bcm by 2017. ?? Production from Indonesia's East Natuna gas project is unlikely to start before 2022, and bringing the large-scale project onstream could cost up to US$40bn. The Natuna D-Alpha block is estimated to hold 1.29trn cubic metres (tcm) of recoverable gas reserves, making it the largest single gas field in Asia. ?? The government and House of Representatives have agreed that new contracts could limit gas exports to 50% or less of total production. The Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry also implied that contract renegotiations could be in place if they are deemed not to be 'beneficial' for the country. This could challenge industry interest in new gas blocks, and could adversely affect the rate of development of its unconventional resources.

At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US99.10/barrel (bbl), falling to US$96.20/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012 reflecting some recovery in the US, though uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation and an apparent Chinese slowdown will continue to hamper growth. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.2%.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
- Indonesia Oil and Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Indonesia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Indonesia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2015-2021
- Table: Estimates For 2012 Oil Production (b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2015-2021
- Coal Bed Methane
- Shale Gas
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Indonesia Refining - Production And Consumption, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Refining - Production And Consumption, 2015-2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Indonesia Upstream Rating - Overview
- Indonesia Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Indonesia Upstream Rating - Risks
- Indonesia Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
- Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
- Table: Upstream Projects
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- Table: Indonesia Tenders
- Table: Indonesia Bids
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016
- Service Stations
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia
- Japanese LNG Supply Deals
- Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
- Chevron Indonesia
- ExxonMobil Indonesia
- BP Indonesia
- CNOOC Indonesia
- ConocoPhillips Indonesia
- Total E&P Indonesie
- Medco Energi
- Eni Indonesia
- Salamander Energy

Full Table of Contents is available at:

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