2013-12-02 13:10:34 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Freight Sector Recovery As Recession Bottoms Out
Although the recession in Italy shows clear signs of having bottomed out, the recovery remains fragile and at risk from a renewed bout of political instability. We estimate real GDP to contract by 1.5% in 2013, before returning to positive growth of just 0.3% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. The Italian freight sector appears to be making a steady recovery too, showing positive signs over the medium term, buffered by new developments in European trade links.
Headline Industry Data
* Port of Genoa cargo volume set to rise by 0.3% to 54.534mn tonnes in 2013 (down fractionally from a 0.4% contraction in 2012).
* Air freight volumes are expected to see 1.0% growth
in 2013 and a further 2.0% expansion in 2014.
* Road haulage will grow by 1.6% to 1.238bn tonnes in 2014, after a 16.3% contraction in 2012.
* Cargo volumes carried by rail will increase in 2014 by 1.0% to 86.708mn tonnes.
* In real terms Italy's trade (imports + exports) will drop by 2.0% in 2013 and recover with 1.9% growth in 2014.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723473_italy_freight_transport_report_2014.a ..
Key Industry Trends
Still Bettering European Rail Freight Links
A high-speed rail link between France and Italy, has been approved between Lyon and Turin, widely viewed as an ideal freight connection. The project, costing an estimated EUR8.5bn will see a 57km long tunnel built through the Alps between Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne in France and Susa, Italy. France and Italy will fund 60% of the project, with the remaining 40% hinging on EU funding. The project will reduce congestion on the Alpine ways by more than one million annually. The rail link is unlikely to open before 2028-2029 and consensus suggests it is likely to exceed its estimated cost. The French transport users federation, FNAUT, is backing the project, despite fierce environmentalist opposition. Incentives for switching modes from road to rail will need to be considered.
Some Signs Of Air Freight Growth
Qatar Airways Cargo has launched a new freighter service between the well-established freight route, the US and Italy. The new link doubled the capacity of the company's cargo services out of the US. The service, launched on July 3 2013, operates twice a week between Milan and Chicago, and is a significant development for Qatar Airways.
Maritime Expansions: Venice Dredging Allows For Larger Carriers
Italy's Marghera terminal, Venice docked its largest ship on August 2 2013 after the recent draft to increase to 11.5 metres was completed by the Venice Port Authority. The MV Ten Jin Maru, a bulk carrier, carrying 65,000 tonnes of agribulk product for agribusiness company Nidera, was the first of the new larger bulk vessels to dock, proving the Port of Venice's handling capability to the market. More dredging plans have been made for the Port of Piombino, to dredge the maximum depth to -20m in the access channel and marina entrance. Reports from Porto di Cecina's development project are that the project is progressing as planned.
Key Risks To Outlook
Our forecasts for the Italian freight sector are built on the hypothesis that the worst of the eurozone/ sovereign debt crisis is over. Yet, we forecast economic growth in Italy to underperform relative to its main trading partners in the coming years. BMI sees one of the main downside risks to the freight sector if economic recovery relapses - particularly due to the uncertainty associated with fresh elections, which could undermine improving business and consumer confidence. The volatility and potential financial market turmoil associated with fresh elections could stifle the nascent economic recovery. If such a scenario were to occur, companies may put investment programmes on hold, leading to delays and falling levels of activity.
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