2013-03-01 16:41:54 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
With the eco-vehicle subsidy programme ending earlier than the official deadline of January 2013 due to the strong take-up rate of the allocated funds, sales remained weaker for the latter part of 2012. Although BMI was already bearish on vehicle sales for the latter part of 2012, sales for the year came in even weaker than expected, growing 27.5% to 5.37mn units.
For 2013, we expect this trend of weak sales to continue as we do not expect the government to reinstate any subsidies for consumers. Given that these subsidies bolstered sales for much of 2012, it is reasonable to assume that sales in 2013 will contract without the subsidies. We forecast 2013 vehicle sales to fall 11%, to hit 4.8mn
units. Given that the subsidies benefitted the small car segment, we forecast small car sales to contract 15% in 2013.
Full Report Details at
In 2012, our view that heavy trucks would be bolstered by the reconstruction effort following the natural disasters of 2011 also played out as heavy truck sales rose 27%. Light commercial vehicle sales growth was also strong at 14%. The outperformer among CV segments, however, was the bus and coach segment, which grew 36%.
Given these high levels of growth in a mature market with historically lower growth, or indeed, contractions in recent years, we expect much less movement in 2013 and for much of the five-year forecast period to 2017. There is upside risk to this outlook in the form of new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's supplementary budget, which has allocated JPY13.1trn in government spending. However, BMI's Asia team believes this, like previous stimulus plans, is unlikely to result in a permanent increase in economic activity.
Overseas, the sales situation for Japanese automakers in China does appear to be improving, as sales in recent months have been less negative year-on-year (y-o-y) since the islands dispute between Japan and China erupted in September 2012. However, BMI believes the weakening of the yen against the US dollar since Abe came to power throws a lifeline to Japanese carmakers. While China, being the world's biggest automotive market, will still remain an important pillar for automakers, we see the current easing of margin pressures owing to the weaker currency giving them more export options.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Japan Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Market Overview
- Table: Vehicle Production By Company
- Table: Vehicle Sales By Company
- Industry Developments
- Passenger Vehicles
- Table: Japan Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Passenger Car Production By Company
- Table: Car Sales By Company
- Latest Developments
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Japan Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: CV Production By Company
- Table: CV Sales By Company
- Company Developments
- Table: Japan Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Motorcycle Production By Brand
- Economic Analysis
- Private Consumption Growth To Remain Tepid
- Private Investment Growth To Reflect Businesses' Pessimism
- Stalling Debt Growth To Restrict Public Consumption and Investment
- Drag From Weak External Demand And Rising Energy Imports To Remain
- Table: Japan - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific
- Company Monitor
- Toyota Motor
- Nissan Motor
- Mitsubishi Motors
- Asia Overview
- Thailand: Sales And Production Will Continue Posting Healthy Increases
- Malaysia: Sales To Grow And Production Finally More Stable
- Australia: Sales To Contract Due To Tough Macroeconomic Conditions
- Japan: Bearish On Sales, Production To Remain Subdued
- China: Rebalancing Story To Favour Passenger Cars
- India: Government Regulatory Risks In Play
Global Industry Overview
- Table: Passenger Car Sales, Units, 2012
- Japan To Contract, But US Safe (For Now)
- Europe Over The Worst?
- Even Russia Will Hit The Brakes
- Japan Demographic Data
- Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Automobile Industry
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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