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Recent Study: Philippines Agribusiness Report Q1 2014


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2013-12-27 11:08:47 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Philippines Agribusiness Report Q1 2014"

We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term given the potential for expansion of new sectors, such as palm oil. Our outlook is especially positive for sugar production; we also believe the livestock sector will continue to post healthy growth rates. The Philippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support, will foster domestic and foreign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems, especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. This paradox is well illustrated in the island of Mindanao: a recent peace deal between the government and a rebel group could inspire investor confidence, which would help to develop the region's strong agricultural potential. However, lingering

issues regarding business environment and security issues in Mindanao will restrict the development of the island

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754628_philippines_agribusiness_report_q1_20 ..

Key Forecasts

* Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 15.7% to 2.8mn tonnes. Sugar production expansion will mainly be driven by improvements in yields.
* Pork production growth to 2016/17: 13.3% to 1.5mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by an increase in commercial farming, as well as rising domestic consumption.
* Rice consumption growth to 2017: 3.3% to 13.3mn tonnes. Per capita consumption growth is expected to slow as the government encourages the consumption of other goods (such as corn and cassava) to limit demand as part of the country's self-sufficiency strategy. However, the combination of strong population growth and only moderate production growth means that the country will remain one of the world's largest net importers of rice.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to US$17.18bn in 2014, forecast to grow on average 1.7% annually between 2013 and 2017.
* 2014 real GDP growth: 6.0% (down from 6.98% in 2013).
* 2014 consumer price inflation: 3.5% y-o-y (up from 2.9% y-o-y in 2013).
* 2014 central bank policy rate: 4.00% (up from 3.50% in 2013).

Industry Developments

We see the Philippines' goal to boost ethanol production in order to improve efficiency in its sugar sector ahead of the upcoming implementation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Community (AEC) in 2015 as overly ambitious. Indeed, although production capacity has been ramping up in recent years, Philippine sugar farmers and millers remain relatively uncompetitive. As such, Thailand's sugar exports are still likely to increase once the AEC is fully implemented.

We see significant opportunity for dairy-exporting countries to satisfy the Philippines' growing demand for dairy products. The country will maintain an ambitious support plan that will help domestically produced milk to increasingly supply local liquid milk consumption. However, the market for imported dairy products has bright days ahead, as the Philippines' industry remains relatively uncompetitive and unable to meet soaring demand. The Philippines' milk production has traditionally lagged at low levels, while dairy consumption shot up at the end of the 1990s. As a result, the country's dairy sector is now dominated by imported products from New Zealand, the US and Australia.

We believe the peace deal signed between the Philippine government and the rebel group MILF over the autonomous region in Mindanao could help to revive agricultural investment in the region. More specifically, it could help Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producers implement their long-term

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: Philippines Butter Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Whole Milk Powder Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Butter Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Philippines Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Philippines Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Philippines Whole Milk Powder Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: Philippines Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Philippines Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Philippines Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Rice Outlook
- Table: Philippines Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: Philippines Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Wheat Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Philippines Wheat Consumption, 2007-2012
- Sugar Outlook
- Table: Philippines Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Philippines Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Asia GM Outlook
- Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
- Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
- Asia Machinery Outlook
- Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
- Asia Fertiliser Outlook
- Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
Downstream Analysis
- Food

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=754628&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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