2013-02-24 15:34:57 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI View: Qatar sits on the world's third-largest proven gas reserves, which are concentrated in the offshore North Field. The country's robust efforts to commercialise this deposit have resulted in Qatar becoming the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. We see it sustaining this lead over the forecast period. The successful deployment of gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology will also support its petroleum export volumes, although pricing dynamics must remain accommodative for GTL technology to remain economical over the long term. Qatar's crude oil prospects are less exciting, as its oil reserves are modest in comparison with its Persian Gulf neighbours.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:

* BMI sees Qatari gas production growing to

nearly 154bcm by 2021, with sustained annual growth over the forecast period, albeit at a slowing rate. However, given the economy's robust growth outlook, Qatar's domestic gas consumption is also set to rise quickly, to as much as 68bcm over the same period.
* Our forecasts see the country's theoretical gas exports peaking in 2016 at 85.7bcm, pending an increase in pipeline exports to the UAE and Oman through the Dolphin pipeline and/or the construction of new liquefaction trains. We forecast gas exports to remain close to this level through the end of our forecast period in 2021. Additional long-term supply contracts, particularly to Asian countries including Japan, also support the view that exports will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
* We expect a 12% increase in oil production in the period 2013-21, with an associated small increase in net exports. The rise in Qatari refining capacity will boost domestic consumption of crude oil, while Qatar will also start exporting more fuels as a result of the start-up of Pearl GTL, which was successfully launched in September 2012. The successful execution of Pearl GTL will boost Qatar's petroleum export revenues and also bodes well for feedstock supplies to Qatar's petrochemicals sector. Pricing dynamics must remain accommodative in order to ensure that GTL production remains economical over the forecast period.
* We see Qatari proven oil and natural gas reserves declining modestly over the forecast period, with a 7.8% decline in natural gas reserves expected between 2013 and 2021. Oil reserves will decline much more slowly, ending the forecast period less than 1% lower than 2013 levels. Exploration successes create upside risks to these forecasts, however.


Full Report Details at
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Qatar's dependence on oil leads to high volatility in the country's export revenues. Our assumptions of a slower growth in China, a sluggish recovery in the US and persistent economic weakness in the eurozone, pose a threat to global oil demand. At the time of writing we are forecasting average OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$107.05/bbl in 2012 to US$96.15/bbl in 2014, which will have a somewhat detrimental impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook. However, we emphasise that large fiscal and current account surpluses, as well as a massive stock of foreign exchange (FX) reserves, provide the economy with a significant buffer in the event of any short-term decline in oil prices.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Qatar Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Qatar Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
- Table: Qatar Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Qatar Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Table: Qatar Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Qatar Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Table: Qatar Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Qatar Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Qatar Risk/Reward Ratings
- Regional O&G Risk Reward/Ratings
- Table: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
Market Overview
- Qatar Energy Market Overview
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Qatar - Major Upstream Projects
- Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Table: Refineries In Qatar
- Table: GTL Plants In Qatar
- Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar
Competitive Landscape
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Profile
- Qatar Petroleum
- ExxonMobile Oil Qatar
- Total Qatar
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Other Companies - Summary
- Maersk Oil - Summary
- Occidental Petroleum - Summary
- Qatargas - Summary
- RasGas - Summary
- Tasweeq - Summary
- Sasol - Summary
- ConocoPhillips - Summary
- Cosmo Oil - Summary
- Wintershall - Summary
- GDF Suez - Summary
- CNOOC - Summary
- PetroChina - Summary
- Others - Summary
Regional Overview
- Regional Energy Market Overview
- Iraq: Abundance of Risk, Abundance Of Potential
- Proven Producers Invest To Lift Output
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=536538&dt=t

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