2013-03-22 17:08:06 - Fast Market Research recommends "Romania Real Estate Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

With a focus on the principal cities of Bucharest, Brasov and Cluj-Napoca, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 24 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on a market already characterised by austerity. In line with such an outlook, we see similarly stable, though unexciting, growth in rental rates in 2013, with supply and demand largely in balance. The retail sector can be considered an outperformer, with internationals constantly entering the market and many looking to expand their businesses out of the major cities.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552390_romania_real_estate_report_q2_2013.as ..


Key Points

* The residential and non-residential building sectors saw a slight return to growth in 2012, although activity in the sectors will remain extremely depressed going forward. Year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 6.1% is estimated for the year, increasing to 6.4% in 2013.
* Romania's economy as a whole is estimated to have grown by 1% in real terms during 2012. However, it is thought that the construction sector outstripped the economic growth rate. Underpinning our continued optimism for the sector, activity in the local construction market expanded by 5.1% year-on-year in August 2012 (and 2.8% month-on-month). As such, we estimate that Romania's construction market expanded by 5.7% in real terms over 2012, marking an improvement on the 3.1% growth recorded in 2011 and the 12.1% real contraction experienced in 2010.
* Over the period 2013 to 2016, we expect that Romania's construction market will expand at annual rate ranged between 5.1% and 6.1%, while the period 2017-2021 will see continued annual growth of around 5% in real terms, making for a reasonably auspicious long-term outlook.
* Risks to our construction sector forecasts are to the downside, in view of slightly weaker-than-expected economic growth and a renewed uptick in inflation, which reached an annual 3.9% in August 2012.
* We remain bearish on the European building materials market as conditions for firms continue to deteriorate in light of ongoing eurozone austerity. The sovereign debt crisis, lower domestic demand from peripheral countries and tighter financing conditions are constraining our construction outlook for the region and will continue to limit growth for the foreseeable future. Overcapacity, increasing production costs and falling sales volumes have hit the bottom lines of producers since 2009, and we see no immediate end to these phenomena. Notable exceptions to this trend are Russia and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. We expect these outperforming markets to sustain high levels of demand over the medium term.
* Disappointing Q312 data released by the Romanian Institute of National Statistics has led us to revise our forecasts for real GDP growth to 1.7% in 2013 and 3.1% in 2014, from 2.2% and 3.5% respectively. In line with our previous forecast (see our online service 'Teetering On Full Year Recession', September 9), real GDP growth slowed in Q312, contracting by 0.5% y-o-y, the largest quarterly GDP contraction since Q410, and grew by just 0.2% y-o-y in unadjusted real GDP terms in the first nine months of 2012. While poor weather conditions and inflated oil prices contributed to the sluggish growth figures in 2012, we see weakened growth in Europe and heightened uncertainty over the future of the eurozone continuing to weigh on Romanian growth for the next few quarters.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Business Environment
- Economic
- Political
Industry Forecast
- Industrial
- Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
- Retail
- Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
- Office
- Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Table: Romania Construction and Infrastructure Industry Data, 2011 - 2016
- Table: Romania Construction and Infrastructure Industry Data, 2017 - 2022
Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Romania - Balance Of Payments (euro)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
- Business Environment Outlook
- Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
- Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Table: Emerging Europe - Annual FDI Inflows
- Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations
Market Overview
- Office
- Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2012, (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012, (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases, H212
- Romania Retail Sales Indicators
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2016
- Retail
- Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - H212
- Industrial
- Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - H212
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
- TriGranit
Demographic Forecast
- Romania Demographic Data
- Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Bank Lending
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Sources

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