2013-03-20 12:14:24 - Fast Market Research recommends "Turkey Infrastructure Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI Industry View
BMI View: Turkey has a healthy construction pipeline, complete with numerous high-profile projects within both its infrastructure and residential/non-residential sectors, underpinning strong construction industry growth. Despite a high current account deficit, the significant cost of credit and structural flaws in the domestic banking and pension sectors, we remain optimistic about the industry's growth potential.
There are downside risks to Turkey's healthy construction sector outlook, which come in the form of the European debt crisis, structural flaws in the domestic pension and banking sectors, the high cost of credit and volatile oil prices. Together, these factors impelled a marginal downward revision to our sector forecasts in February 2012. However, as we pointed out at the time, activity in the equity
markets did not indicate that major Turkish construction players are unduly concerned, and on the back of a strong project pipeline, we maintain a healthy growth outlook. This view is now playing out. Average real construction industry growth for the period 2013-2022 is forecast at 5.3%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552410_turkey_infrastructure_report_q2_2013. ..
We see sustained healthy growth in Turkey's construction sector over our 10-year forecast period; however, due to the country's history of high volatility and abrupt trends, in addition to the potentially far-reaching repercussions for the Turkish economy if there were to be a contraction in the construction sector, we are keeping a careful eye on any developments.
Other key predictions include:
* The rail sub-sector could see a considerable boost from a Chinese loan to fund the construction of a US $35bn high-speed train line spanning 7000km between Edrine and Kars. Furthermore, the final stretch of the Istanbul to Ankara high-speed rail link is likely to be concluded in 2013.
* The government has announced the plans for the third Istanbul airport, which have prompted an upward revision to our airport sub-sector forecasts. We now see annual average real growth of 9.0% between 2013 and 2017.
* The North Marmara Highway project coming online, the construction of the Izmit Bay Crossing-Gebze- Izmir motorway and the ongoing work on the Marmaray tunnel beneath the Bosphorous strait are other key projects promoting growth in the transport sector, which we expect to average 7.0% between 2013 and 2017.
Energy & Utilities
* Promising developments are also taking place in the energy and the utilities segment, where we expect growth to be led by the country's large population, low current per capita power consumption and historically high consumption growth.
* A further push to this will come from the government's National Wind Energy System, which was unveiled in October 2011 and will involve the setting up of a locally-built 500 kilowatt (KW) wind turbine, which was due to have been finished by end-2012, and a 2,500KW wind turbine by 2014 in the first stage. BMI expects Turkey's energy & utilities infrastructure industry value to register annual average real growth of just below 7.8% between 2013 and 2017.
* Turkey's strategic geographical position is paying off. Situated in-between one of the world's largest gas deposits, and one of the world's biggest gas markets, the European Union (EU),Turkey has become a crucial part of the international energy infrastructure. In June 2012, the agreement for the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) was finally signed between Turkey and Azerbaijan for the construction of the pipeline, which stretches for over 300km.
Residential & Non-Residential
Istanbul will continue to be a key focus of growth and investment within the country, with a number of high-profile commercial, residential and tourism-related projects having been launched in the city.
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