2013-08-30 08:58:03 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q3 2013"
The UAE Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on the UAE's economic outlook of significant structural weaknesses.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the UAE retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a slowing export sector amid the broader global downturn on the Dubai consumer in particular and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the UAE retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
UAE per capita consumer spending is forecast
to increase by 59.4% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 53.5%. The country comes third (out of seven) in BMI's MEA Retail Risk/Reward Ratings.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/670606_united_arab_emirates_retail_report_q3 ..
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by nearly 57% between 2013 and the end of the period, from US $6.04bn to US$9.47bn as the UAE's high-income and largely expatriate population continues to make it well suited to modern retailing.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that up to 40% of grocery retail sales are still accounted for by independent outlets, indicating that the MGR industry remains some way off saturation. There is room for store launches across both the high-value hypermarket and supermarket segments.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* Our baseline scenario sees the UAE economy expanding 3.2% in real terms in 2013, and 3.8% in 2014. With consumer and business sentiment appearing to have finally turned a corner, the outlook for household consumption and fixed investment is particularly bright over the coming quarters. A sharperthan- expected cut to domestic oil production, further deterioration in the ongoing eurozone crisis and a potential flare-up in geopolitical tensions with regard to Iran are key downside risks to our outlook.
* Despite the broadly favourable macro backdrop, we do not expect to see a significant acceleration in household consumption patterns this year, particularly given our still cautious outlook on the domestic banking sector. A combination of an increasingly uncertain regulatory backdrop with higher loan loss provisioning ahead of the 2014 'funding cliff' (at which point approximately US$30bn in liabilities are set to mature in Dubai alone), is likely to ensure credit growth to the non-oil private sector remains anaemic over the coming quarters.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
- Household Consumption: Improving Steadily
- Government Consumption: Keeping A Lid on Growth
- Fixed Investment: Numerous Projects To Drive Growth
- Net Exports: Slowdown In Place
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- United Arab Emirates Risk/Reward Ratings
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Middle East And Africa Overview
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2010-2017
- Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%)
- Current Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- SWOT - MGR
- Market Overview - MGR
- Industry Forecast - MGR
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Market Overview
- Table: Computers - Demand, 2010-2017
- Table: AV - Demand, 2010-2017
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Handsets - Demand, 2010-2017
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
- Industry Forecast
- Table: UAE - Top 10 Best Selling Models, 2012
- Luxury Cars
- Fleet and Rental
- Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020
- Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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