2012-10-27 18:23:59 - New Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI's Australia Defence & Security report for Q4 2012 examines the country's strategic position in the Pacific region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the issues it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that the Australian defence establishment faces an uncertain period as the ambitious objectives set out in the 2009 Defence White Paper have now been put on hold - and in some cases now face cancellation - by cuts to the defence budget. These have been enacted as part of a
wider deficit-reduction programme set in train by the administration of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. The government had previously committed to increasing the defence budget by 3% annually; now, defence faces a 7% budget cut compared with 2011-12, and must save AUD5.5bn over five years.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479355_australia_defence_security_report_q4_ ..
This means that the arrival of a new White Paper, due in 2013, cannot come soon enough. Though a newly released Defence Force Posture Review has given some clarity regarding the country's strategic outlook, both the Australian Defence Force and the defence industry now need a clearer picture of which capabilities the country plans to procure and/or develop indigenously during the years ahead. Certainly, some of the objectives outlined in 2009 now appear out of reach.
The holding pattern established by a new Defence Capability Plan is effectively to defer the turnkey decisions on some of Australia's biggest upcoming programmes, such as the F-35 fighter aircraft and the navy's new submarine fleet. The DCP, which was released in May, still anticipated AUD153m in defence procurements receiving first or second pass approval in the 2013-16 timeframe; however, that figure is likely to come down if the new White Paper rows back on some of the very ambitious objectives set out in 2009.
Meanwhile, the US has continued to set out its vision of its own role in the future Asia-Pacific. Australia will be a key partner in that project; Canberra has also taken steps to increase its ties with other major US allies, such as Japan and South Korea.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* The implications of defence budget cuts are discussed in detail, with some important programmes now facing delays. One influential Australian think-tank spoke of a 'lost decade' thanks to the budget restrictions.
* Procurements in Q2 included an order for 10 Alenia C-27J tactical transport aircraft, as well as a contract for Thales Australia for additional Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles.
* Despite these concerns, some important defence programmes chalked up important milestones in Q2. These included the delivery of the air force's sixth and final Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft, as well as the launching in Spain of the navy's second Canberra-class landing helicopter dock.
* With the Australian defence industry under pressure, it is hoped that the establishment of a new American-style Foreign Military Sales agency will help to boost defence exports.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Australia Security SWOT
- Australia Defence Industry SWOT
- Australia Political SWOT
- Australia Economic SWOT
- Australia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- No Respite From Political Risks
- Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korea
- Table: Election Timetable
- Wild Cards To Watch
South East Asia Security Overview
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- South East Asia In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia
- Other Regional Threats
- Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia
- The Outlook For South East Asia
Security Risk Analysis
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Domestic Politics
- Strained State-Federal Relations Could Spell Trouble For ALP
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Three Key Challenges: Population, Climate Change, China
Australia Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Defence Budget
- International Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: Australia's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Australia's Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
- Defence Expenditure
- Table: Australia's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
- Table: Australia's Defence Expenditure Scenarios, 2009-2016 - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn)
- Defence Trade
- Table: Australia's Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Australia's Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Australia's Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Staring Recession In The Face
- Table: Australia's Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- BAE Systems Australia
- Boeing Australia
- Raytheon Australia
- Thales Australia
Full Table of Contents is available at:
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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