2013-02-22 13:41:06 - Fast Market Research recommends "Caucasus Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI Ratings - Brief Methodology

Composite Rating

The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI's emerging markets universe.

Political Ratings

The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo?

Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536344_caucasus_business_forecast_report_q2_ ..


Economy Ratings

The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.

Business Environment Rating

The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Ratings
BMI Risk Ratings - Armenia
BMI Risk Ratings - Azerbaijan
BMI Risk Ratings - Georgia
BMI Risk Ratings - Emerging Europe Tables
Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risk To Outlook
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Armenia
Domestic Politics
Opposition Withdrawal Leaves Sarkisian On Course For Second Term
Long-Term Political Outlook
Mitigation Of Regional Tensions Key To Stability
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Armenia
Economic Activity
Economy Continues On Road To Recovery
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Armenia
The Armenian Economy To 2022
Convergence To Continue
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Azerbaijan
Domestic Politics
One Horse Election To Hand Aliyev Victory Once Again
Long-Term Political Outlook
Everything Hinges On Nagorno-Karabakh
Chapter 2.1: Economic Outlook - Azerbaijan
Economic Activity
Oil Sector Stagnation To Hinder 2013 Growth
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Azerbaijan
The Azerbaijani Economy To 2022
Trend Growth Will Be Lower During 2017-2022
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook - Georgia
Domestic Politics
'Political' Arrests Threaten International Ambitions
Long-Term Political Outlook
Pro-Western Path To Continue
Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook - Georgia
Economic Activity
Economic Outlook Positive Despite GDP Growth Slowdown
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Chapter 3.3: 10-Year Forecast - Georgia
The Georgian Economy To 2022
Foreign Investment Will Support Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3.3: Business Environment - Georgia
Business Environment Outlook
Institutions
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
Infrastructure
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
Market Orientation
Operational Risk
Chapter 4: Regional
Economic Analysis
Global Themes For 2013
- In many ways, 2012 was a year of transition, in which the global economy could easily have sunk into recession, but the worst was narrowly avoided.
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Growth May Be Turning The Corner
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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