2013-03-16 11:14:42 - New Consumer Goods research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
This quarter BMI has revised and restructured its tourism reports, incorporating a greater range of data and focusing on the hotel industry, the value of the tourism industry itself, and the impact of macroeconomic factors.
We believe that there are a number of opportunities presented by the growth of the domestic and international tourism market, both of which are expected to show exceptional growth over the forecast period. The domestic market in particular, based on an increasingly prevalent and affluent middle-class, is forecast to show excellent growth of over 9% a year between 2013 and 2017 in outbound travel, reaching over 100mn per annum by 2017.
China has demonstrated remarkable economic growth over the last few years with increasing GDP, strong investment
in infrastructure and rising exports. In conjunction with this, the government has embarked on an ambitious programme to expand tourism to the country, investing in excess of US$4bn annually since 2001 according to figures from the World Travel & Tourism Council. In previous years foreign investment in the domestic tourist market has been limited; however a process of industry liberalisation has opened the market to investment, particularly in relation to the hospitability. As such, overseas activity in hotel ownership/management has expanded rapidly and there has also been significant progress in opening up travel agencies.
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China already has a well developed rail network, though in some areas it is prone to congestion and would benefit from expansion. BMI expects that in 2013 railways will make up 75% of the total transport infrastructure industry value in 2013, equivalent to US$40.7bn., resulting in an industry value growth of 3.8%. Major projects include the development of 25 new urban railway projects and high speed railways over a three to eight year period. In terms of air travel, the Chinese government has announced it will build 82 airports and refurbish a further 101 by 2015, giving it a total of around 230 providing transport links around the country and internationally.
The global credit crunch impacted on travel to China in 2012, resulting in a small decline of 0.8% in overall arrivals to the country, a much smaller decrease than that experienced by other countries demonstrating the strength of attraction of the country as a tourist destination and the size of the market. 2013 is expected to show a growth of 8.6%, rebounding from the 2012 decrease, with arrivals reaching close to 30mn. This growth will continue throughout the forecast period, and by 2017 BMI expects that the total annual arrivals figure will reach over 43mn.
China has a multitude of tourist attractions, including vibrant cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, cultural and historical attractions like The Forbidden City and Great Wall of China and various eco-attractions.
* Major hotels will continue to expand in the Chinese market in 2013, including the opening of a new Marriott hotel in Shanghai in 2013, its 14th in the country, and the expansion of Intercontinental Hotel Group's Hualuxe brand. Starwood, Wyndham and Hilton also have ambitious growth plans.
* Outbound and inbound travel is expected to increase by an average of 9% a year on the back of an improving international economy and growing domestic middle class. We have revised our 2017 forecast of 42mn arrivals upwards to 43mn reflecting the strength of the regional market.
* The 2017 forecast figure for available accommodation has however been revised downwards from 31,630 to closer to 27,000.
* This quarter BMI given China an overall Tourism Industry Risk/Reward rating of 54, ahead of Japan but behind Malaysia in the Asia Pacific market.
* Key events in 2013 include a variety of festivals such as the Dragon Boat, International Kite and Spring Flower festival and national holidays, particularly National Day in October.
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