2013-02-22 14:10:09 - Fast Market Research recommends "United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: Despite assertions from some stakeholders, the re-election of Barack Obama as President of the United States is not bad news for pharmaceutical companies and medical device manufacturers, primarily because we expect continuation of existing policies that have generally been favourable. However, we caution that further reforms to the healthcare sector are inevitable, due to unsustainable spending on medical services, by both the public and private sectors.

Headline Expenditure Projections:

* Pharmaceuticals: US$337.1bn in 2011 to US$343.1bn in 2012; +1.3% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly down from Q412.
* Healthcare: US$2,708bn in 2011 to US$2,844bn in 2012; +5.0% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly down from Q412.
* Medical devices: US$133bn in 2011 to US$138bn in 2012;

+4.6% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly down from Q412.

Risk/Reward Rating: The Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for the US in Q113 (81 out of 100) is unchanged from its score in Q412. The country scores above the global and regional average for all components of the ratings system, which measures the attractiveness of the pharmaceutical market to multinational drugmakers.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536591_united_states_pharmaceuticals_healthc ..


Key Trends And Developments:

* The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved 35 new drugs across the financial year ending September 30 2012. The figure is in line with the agency's performance in 2011, and in an accompanying report the FDA noted that in many cases it was the first regulator anywhere in the world to grant approval.
* In November 2012, German drugmaker Bayer was set to acquire US vitamins company Schiff. The acquisition will see Bayer pay out US$1.2bn, around US$34 per share. Schiff generated sales totalling US$259mn in the 2011/12 financial year ending May 31 2012 and projects sales to grow by around 43%-46% y-o-y in the financial year ending May 31 2013.
* In October 2012, it emerged that drugmakers GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Johnson & Johnson (J&J) and others have paid US$6.6bn in 2012 to settle claims of defrauding US health programmes, up from US$2.5bn in 2011, advocacy group Public Citizen said. The 2012 settlement also included a record US$3bn settlement by GSK in July 2012. The companies have paid for frauds, such as overcharging government programmes including Medicare and pushing doctors to prescribe drugs for unapproved uses.

BMI Economic View: Our 2012 US real GDP growth estimate has been revised up to 2.2% from the 2.0% forecast we set out at the beginning of 2012. This is mainly due to the stronger-than-expected real GDP growth figure for Q312 (2.7% q-o-q annualised), which can be attributed to an unexpected surge in business inventories and national defence spending. As such, our general outlook for a slow and erratic growth path for the US economy remains in place. Apart from residential construction, most sectors of the economy look weak. Going into 2013, the big issue is the fiscal cliff, which we believe will be resolved favourably, but which throws up major uncertainty. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on GDP is also difficult to predict. It has certainly affected several high-frequency economic indicators, including October/November business surveys, jobless claims and industrial production. But if previous natural disasters are any guide, by the end of Q113, the impact on the overall trajectory of the economy will have been negligible. For now, we are retaining our 2.1% forecast for 2013, but this is subject to change upon a resolution to the fiscal cliff issue.

BMI Political View: Our core view of President Barack Obama being re-elected and Congress remaining split was vindicated on US election day on November 6. Now comes the hard part, with a 'lame duck' congressional session that will decide whether the 'fiscal cliff'hits with full impact at the start of 2013. We hold to our core scenario of a short-term agreement to be reached by end-2012, with the tougher decisions to be postponed until later. However, there are significant risks to this view, as ever.

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