2013-03-22 17:14:28 - New Business market report from Business Monitor International: "United States Real Estate Report Q2 2013"

The US real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country in the context of a gradual return to growth.

With a focus on the principal cities of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 24 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of economic on a market that can dictate regional performance. Despite the bleak horizon outlined at the beginning of 2012, the US commercial real estate market is continuing to exhibit signs of a recovery in 2013, albeit a cautious one.

Positive consumer sentiment has gone some way to keeping real estate investment afloat. The overriding view seems to be that the outlook for commercial real estate is improving, but that ongoing vulnerability in the market is leading to continued caution among real estate players. This indicates that while the recovery is under way, it will continue to be slow.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552420_united_states_real_estate_report_q2_2 ..


Office vacancy levels currently remain high, and forecasts for a decline in unemployment have not yet reversed this trend. New office space is being added at a higher rate, but has not yet matched that discarded during the downturn. Our latest data collection in December of 2012 has revealed the recovery in the office market continues to be patchy, while the retail segment posted some very strong results in comparison to its peers. Retail activity is being buoyed by a shift in focus to second-tier shopping malls, as competition for top quality space has saturated that part of the market. International retailers are also pursuing expansion plans across the US, taking advantage of a recent move for some major retailers to close some of their stores. Meanwhile, industrial production in the US - which has long been a driver of growth - remains flat - and rental rates have seen the gains of H211 already eroded.

Key Points:

* Momentum in the residential construction segment in the US has been strong and this has prompted another upward revision to our 2012 real growth estimates to 2.2%. The upward revision is a strong validation of our mid-2011 view that the US housing sector had bottomed-out and was about to experience a moderate recovery. Since this point, indicators have continued to point to an uptick in residential activity, which we believe has the potential to lift the construction sector as a whole. The nonresidential sector is also experiencing a relative recovery, although we question how long much of this spending can be sustained as federal and state budgets remain tight. Base effects have a role to play in this recovery, and therefore we see real growth in 2013 moderating as base effects are stripped out.
* Strong construction data in Q412 is not only supporting our long-held view that the industry would return to growth in 2012, but has also prompted an upward revision in 2013. However, despite revising our growth outlook for the year up, we maintain our view that growth will slowly decelerate over the medium term following the rebound seen in 2012, although remaining in positive territory. Although residential construction will continue to remain strong, the base effects will have minimised, and non-residential will struggle to sustain growth rates as US manufacturing slows. At the same time, infrastructure is expected to contribute minimally to headline growth as federal spending remains elusive and private investment fails to fill the shortfall.
* We maintain our 2.0% real GDP growth forecast for 2012 and our 2.1% projection for 2013. The economy is running dangerously close to 'stall speed', by which we mean that any major unanticipated headwind would be enough to push the economy into recession.

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