2013-08-21 09:10:06 - New Healthcare market report from Business Monitor International: "United Kingdom Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2013"
We continue to believe that increased commercial potential for private insurance companies is being created through the National Health Service (NHS). Our view is supported by developments such as the replacement in April 2013 of 152 Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) with 211 GP-led Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). The latter are taking responsibility from the former for the commissioning of the majority of care, including the running of a collection of hospital, mental health and community services. CCGs have the freedom to commission services for their local community from any service provider which meets NHS standards and costs, including NHS hospitals, social enterprises, voluntary organisations or private sector providers.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/670564_united_kingdom_pharmaceuticals_health ..
Headline Expenditure Projections:
* Pharmaceuticals: GBP23.74bn (US$37.85bn)
in 2012 to GBP23.42bn (US$36.07bn) in 2013;-1.3% in local currency terms and -4.7% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast unchanged from Q213.
* Healthcare: GBP144.47bn (US$230.33bn) in 2012 to GBP147.64bn (US$227.36bn) in 2013; +2.2% in local currency terms and -1.3% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast unchanged from Q213.
Risk/Reward Rating: Its Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score in Q313 now ranks the UK top out of the ten key markets in Western Europe. One of the tool's components has been adjusted to better reflect longer-term pharmaceutical market opportunities, with the UK's ascent from second position supported by the highest Reward score regionally and one of the best Risk showings. While the uptake of generic drugs will become swifter following patent expirations, we are optimistic that the UK's pharmaceutical market will remain one of the most attractive globally.
Key Trends And Developments
* In May 2013, a research programme known as Mainstreaming Cancer Genetics, aimed at improving access to gene testing for cancer patients, was launched in the UK. The research programme, financed to the tune of GBP2.7mn (US$4mn) by the Wellcome Trust medical charity, will involve the country's Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), US-based healthcare company Illumina, geneticists and cancer doctors. The project will make use of Illumina's new test - TruSight - which is capable of analysing 97 cancer predisposition genes in a few weeks for a few hundred pounds, said Nazneen Rahman, the head of genetics at the ICR.
* In the same month, the UK's Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) opened a public consultation on proposals to permit the sale of medicines on planes and trains. The move aims to extend the scope of General Sale List (GSL) medicines and curb bureaucracy. Benefits to public health are expected, as individuals will have increased availability of medicines on long-haul flights and will be able to treat minor ailments themselves. However, criticisms may come from stakeholders who believe that easy access would only encourage overuse of medicines.
* In a bid to eliminate unnecessary costs and to reduce complexity, in March 2013, Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical major AstraZeneca announced that its small molecule and biologics research and development (R&D) activities will be concentrated in three strategic centres: Cambridge, UK; Gaithersburg, US; and Molndal, Sweden. The proposals are expected to be fully implemented by 2016. The three strategic sites will be supported by other existing AstraZeneca facilities around the world, including Boston, Massachusetts, US which will continue to be a centre for R&D, with a primary focus on small molecules. We note that the slimming down of internal R&D operations will allow for partnerships with academic institutions as well as with smaller, development-stage companies.
* According to statements made by the Health Ministry in March 2013, the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) will take over the responsibility for evaluating medicines once the value-based pricing arrangements come into effect in 2014. This responsibility will allow the NICE to use its drug evaluation processes to assess the drug's costs and benefits. The move is aimed at linking the price National Health Service (NHS) pays for new medicines to their value to the NHS and the society.
BMI Economic View: The return to positive economic growth during the first quarter will provide welcome respite for the UK's beleaguered Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who is fast becoming one of the few remaining paragons of aggressive fiscal austerity. We continue to highlight the conflict between the headline GDP figures and other macro indicator data, and suggest that the UK is in for a year of positive but anaemic growth as the bank lending channel remains impaired and demand destruction in the eurozone accelerates.
BMI Political View: Providing another headwind for George Osborne, the UK has lost its long-standing triple-A credit rating. We believe that the economic and market fallout will be limited (the fundamentals warranted a downgrade long ago), but warn that there is considerable political cost to the government, and not least to the Chancellor who has been the figurehead of fiscal and economic reform.
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