2013-09-16 08:58:59 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Algeria Petrochemicals Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI is upbeat about the prospects for growth in the Algerian petrochemicals market in the context of rising, yet not spectacular, economic growth. We forecast real GDP growth in Algeria of 3.5% and 4.8% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, up from 2.2% in 2012. Growth in private consumption and fixed investment will slow this year. Given slack projected petroleum production growth and the lack of structural reforms, the economy will grow below potential over the medium term. Yet, industry should remain broadly supportive of rising petrochemicals consumption, even as the non-oil economy slows.
Delays to current projects indicate that the realisation of the country's full potential in petrochemicals is unlikely over the forecast period. These delays will not only raise costs
and lead to a narrowing of margins in the long term, but they will also create a more opaque business environment that will undermine progress and put the industry's significant cost advantages - in terms of domestic natural gas feedstock availability - at risk.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673284_algeria_petrochemicals_report_q4_2013 ..
* Strong growth in agricultural output will lead demand for domestically produced fertiliser, while a rebound in construction following a period of contraction should boost PVC consumption. Meanwhile, engineering plastics, particularly in the PP segment, will be supported by a surge in local car-making following investment by Renault, provided there is a high level of local manufacturing content in the assembly line.
* The main development in H113 is the planned commencement of operations at Sorfert Algeria's fertiliser plant, which will produce around 800,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of merchant ammonia and 1.2mn tpa of urea for export. Mechanical works were completed at the beginning of 2013, but the start-up of production was pushed back due to delays to government approvals. According to reports in March 2013, the plant was due to start up in Q213, but reports in May suggested further delays.
* Algeria ranks 10th in BMI's Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix this quarter, with an overall score of 40.6 points out of 100, unchanged on the previous quarter. Its petrochemicals-specific scores benefit from progress at the Arzew petrochemicals complex, but are held back by delays in other projects.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Arzew Complex Capacities, 2014 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Algeria's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Algeria Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Africa Coming Into View As Gulf States Mature
- Arab Spring Takes Its Toll
- Regulatory Framework Dictates Risks
- Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk Ratings
- Table: Algeria Cracker Capacity, 2010-2017 ('000 tpa)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Petrochemicals Capacity At The Planned Arzew Complex
- Olefins & Polyolefins
- Middle East And Africa Overview
- Looking to Asia
- Diversification is the Long-Term Focus
- African Growth Focused in the North
Global Industry Overview
- Global Industry Overview
- Short-term outlook: Prices Stabilising & Margins Improving
- Long-term growth
- Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
- Table: Algeria - Population By Age Group
- Table: Algeria - Key Population Ratios
- Table: Algeria - Rural and Urban Population
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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