2013-10-18 17:28:30 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "France Information Technology Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
With domestic GDP growth of -0.3% forecast in 2013 and external markets set to remain in the doldrums, BMI sees little grounds for optimism for the French petrochemicals sector in H213, although a slow recovery is expected from 2014. In the medium term, the sector will struggle to recover fully from the precipitous decline in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. With the eurozone sovereign debt crisis weighing heavily on the sector and undermining growth in both external and domestic markets, BMI does not envisage any rapid return to pre-crisis levels of output in the near future.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/694811_france_information_technology_report_ ..
In spite of a reduction in basic chemicals capacity since the 2008 financial crisis, the French chemicals
industry enjoyed growth in sales during 2012 amid rising value added, which has been driven by increasing investment. In 2012, the French chemicals industry reported a 2.5% rise in turnover to EUR88.9bn on the back of a 2.0% rise in exports to EUR55bn and 2.7% growth in the domestic market to EUR84.5bn. Imports rose 2.2% to EUR50.6bn, leading to a 1.4% reduction in the chemicals trade surplus to EUR4.37bn. Investment amounted to 4.1% of turnover in 2012, totalling EUR3.7bn.
However, in the first five months of 2013, French chemicals, plastic and rubber output declined by an average of 3.4% y-o-y with producers struggling with declining orders amid a slump in demand both at home and in key export markets. This reversed gains seen in 2012, when the chemicals industry saw turnover rise 2.5%.
Over the past quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* The automotive industry - a key polypropylene (PP) consumer - saw output decline by an estimated 13.2% in 2012, according to BMI's Automotives team. Vehicle production is set to decline by a further 10.6% in 2013. The automotive sector output will remain lacklustre with slow levels of growth unlikely to return the sector to pre-recession levels as the industry experiences structural change.
* Construction contracted 0.4% in 2012, depressing demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Recovery is unlikely in 2013 and we anticipate construction industry value to contract by 1.9% in real terms over 2013.
* France scores 73.5 points in BMI's petrochemicals ratings, unchanged since the previous quarter. France remains in third place, 0.4 points behind the Netherlands and 1.0 point ahead of Belgium. France's score has been undermined in recent quarters by relatively poor long-term financial and external ratings as well as the effects of strike action on the market risk environment. France's score is in danger of being further eroded by capacity shutdowns, although its situation is not unique in Western Europe.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Industry Forecast
- Table: France's Chemicals And Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017
- Economic Analysis
- GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
- Risks To Outlook
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- France Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Market Overview
- Table: French Chemical Industry Trends Value in EURbn
Industry Trends And Developments
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Europe Overview
- Short-Term Outlook: Competitiveness And Pricing
- Looking Beyond Europe
- Shale Gas Boom To Change European Petrochemicals Outlook?
Global Industry Overview
- Global Industry Overview
- Short-term outlook: Prices Stabilising & Margins Improving
- Long-term growth
- Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
- Global Oil Product Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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