2013-03-22 17:01:48 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
We forecast that Iran will see very slight economic growth in 2013, with a 0.5% GDP expansion forecast by BMI following our 2012 estimate of a 3.4% contraction. In terms of shipping, however, we forecast a continued decline in container shipping volumes at Bandar Abbas as the Iranian consumer continues to be squeezed by the massive depreciation of the rial against the US$.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to decline by 7.3% before returning to growth in 2014.
* 2017 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.25mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - not enough to match 2011 volumes.
* 2013 total trade is forecast to endure a contraction of 4.9%.
Key Industry Trends
Open 40 New Ports By March 20: The Iranian government is to inaugurate around 40 new ports across the country by the end of the current Iranian calendar year on March 20 2013, Iranian news agency ISNA reported in February, citing Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization head Ataollah Sadr. Around 60 small and multi-purpose ports throughout Iran are being established, Sadr added. Diplomat Threatens Closure Of Hormuz Strait: Iran's envoy to Iraq, Hassan Danaie-Far, has warned that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz in response to any kind of action from the US to stop its nuclear programme, it was reported in January. One-third of the world's trade oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US has cautioned that any attempts to close the strait would be seen as a ground for military action by the US.
Full Report Details at
Western Sanctions Hitting Maritime Safety, Iranian Official Claims: Western sanctions imposed on Iran's shipping industry will severely affect regional and international maritime safety as well as security and pollution prevention, Iran's deputy permanent representative at UN's International Maritime Organization claimed in December 2012.
Key Risks To Outlook
The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear energy development programme - which the Iranians insist is not related to the development of weapons - elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. However, it is uncertain how much longer Iran can continue in the current manner given its dire economic outlook and were a reversal to be made - and sanctions lifted - this could create risk to our economic and port throughput forecasts.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Bandar Abbas Throughput Outlook
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
- Iran Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
- Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
- Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
- Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
- Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long?
- Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
- Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
- Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
- Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
- LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Hanjin Shipping
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Mitsui OSK Lines
- Table: European Union Increasing Pressure On Iran
- Table: Iran - Economic Activity
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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