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Report Published: "Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q1 2014"


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2013-12-27 08:49:15 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

We expect the Kazakh grain sector to outperform, especially as Kazakhstan sees more export opportunities to Central Asia and China. We expect limited growth for the livestock and dairy sectors, as export potential for both industries will remain limited. Only domestic demand, which we expect to be strong, could partially encourage domestic production. That said, cheap imports from Russia could put local growers at a disadvantage. We have not identified any major public company operating in the sector that we would highlight.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production to 2016/17: -9.1% to 19.1mn tonnes. Efforts to diversify into oilseeds and other field crops and little potential for a repeat of the perfect conditions of 2011/12 will see production fall over our five-year

forecast period.
* Cheese consumption growth to 2017: 44.5% to 82,500 tonnes. This will come from increased demand for value-added dairy products on the back of accelerating urbanisation and improvements in infrastructure.
* Beef production growth to 2016/17: 35.7% to 576,700 tonnes. The comprehensive overhaul of the beef herd continues apace as imported breeding stocks improve quality.
* 2014 real GDP growth: 5.5%, up from 5.4% in 2013.
* 2014 average consumer price inflation: 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 5.5% y-o-y in 2013.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 22.9% y-o-y increase to US$8.5bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 9.8% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754586_kazakhstan_agribusiness_report_q1_201 ..

Industry Outlook

We have revised up our forecast for Kazakh wheat production to 16.5mn tonnes in 2013/14, compared with 15.0mn tonnes earlier, in line with the latest official estimates. However, we raise concerns over potential deterioration in the quality of the crop. Even though 92.0% of the wheat collected so far is of high quality, local industry sources fear that the quality could fall further as the harvesting campaign shifts to the northern part of the country. Kazakhstan has already harvested 7.5m tonnes of wheat from 40% of the sown area with yields at 1.3tonnes/hectare, up from 0.8tonnes/hectare in 2012/13. As of September last season, more than 80% of the sown area had been harvested.

We believe Kazakhstan has the potential to improve the quality and efficiency of its meat output via a strong increase in cattle imports. This supports our forecast for beef production to grow by 35.7% out to the end of our forecast period, to 576,720 tonnes in 2017. In 2011, the Ministry of Agriculture announced a plan for 'the development of beef export potential for Kazakhstan' to be implemented in two phases. The first phase, covering 2011-2015, targets the rapid expansion of the number of high-yielding breeding cattle in Kazakhstan. The second phase, from 2016-2020, would push for the development of beef export potential.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: Kazakhstan Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: Kazakhstan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: Kazakhstan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Update
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Europe Machinery Outlook
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators Historical Data And Forecasts 2010-2017
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales Historical Data And Forecasts 2010-2017
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Volume/Value Sales Historical Data And Forecasts 2010-2017
- Processed Foods
- Table: Processed Meat Volume Sales, Production And Trade Historical Data And Forecasts 2010-2017
- Table: Frozen Fruits and Vegetables Volume Sales, Production And Trade Historical Data And Forecasts 2010-2017
- Baked Products

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=754586&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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