2013-09-20 09:11:06 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Korea Metals Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
South Korean metals consumption growth is set to moderate in 2013 and 2014, as the country's exports of manufactured goods are hit by a global economic slowdown and an expected contraction in Europe. South Korea is a major producer of steel and slab zinc, but domestic mining output of ferrous and nonferrous metals is small and it is reliant on imports for the raw materials required by the metals industry. Domestically produced metals and metal products are fundamental to the country's industrial base, as well as trade.
South Korea has very small reserves of copper and the production level of both mined and refined copper is insufficient to meet domestic demand. The country has to rely on imports to supplement domestic
production, and is the world's sixth largest importer of refined copper and the world's fifth largest importer of copper blisters and anodes, which are unrefined forms of copper.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/684736_south_korea_metals_report_q4_2013.asp ..
The deep decline in infrastructure activity suggests the stimulus measures initiated by the government since 2009 are fast receding, with an impact on construction metal products, such as steel rebar and sections, aluminium panels and extruded products and copper pipes.
Below-Consensus Views Bearish For Production
Our views on the Chinese economy are below consensus, and we foresee a significant impact on South Korea's export sectors, as China is South Korea's largest export market, with a 25% share of total exports. Inflationary pressure is mounting in the Chinese economy and we expect to further tightening measures, which would likely exacerbate weaknesses in the country's housing market. Given that the property sector has been the main engine of growth for the entire mainland economy, a correction would inevitably hurt Chinese demand for South Korean metal goods.
Two of South Korea's other sizeable export markets, Hong Kong (5.4% of total exports) and Taiwan (3.2%), are very dependent on the Chinese economy, meaning demand from these two may face similar downward pressure. The slowdown in China is also leading to overcapacity, with Chinese metal products flooding the Asian market. Indeed, we remain below consensus across base metals based on our China view. As we do not expect a sustained recovery in prices, expecting metals to head broadly lower over 2013 and 2014, it is likely that expansion plans will be delayed and new projects curtailed.
As part of its programme to encourage firms to build up their inventories, the Public Procurement Service (PPS) is setting up a physical metal-backed exchange traded fund (ETF) with a bonded warehouse in Busan port with capacity to store about 100,000 tonnes of copper or 70,000 tonnes of primary aluminium. Unit prices of the ETF will be based on the cash London Metal Exchange prices and premiums for spot metal at the buying time and the main suppliers will be international trading houses.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Steel: Steady Growth Outlook
- Table: South Korea - Steel Production & Consumption, 2009-2017 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: South Korea - Steel Production And Trade, 2003-2011 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Zinc: Korea Zinc To Drive Growth
- Table: South Korea - Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes)
- Copper: Reliance On Imports To Wane
- Table: South Korea - Refined Copper Production And Consumption, 2009-2017 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: South Korea - Political Overview
- Monthly Metals Strategy
- Ferrous Metals
- Base Metals
- Aluminium: Still Further Declines
- Copper: Continued Weakness
- Nickel: Persisting Fall
- Zinc: Holding Steady, For Now
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
- Table: Global Commodities Strategy
- Steel Price Forecast
- Table: BMI Steel Forecast
- Table: Steel Forecast
- Table: Selected Companies And Indexes - Financial Data
- Table: POSCO - Financial Results
- Korea Zinc
- Table: Korea Zinc - Financial Results
- Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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