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Romania Agribusiness Report Q1 2014 - New Report Available


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2013-12-29 21:18:16 - New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

We still believe the grain sector has the highest growth potential owing to its competitiveness and its exposure to the Middle East and Asia. Sugar production is likely to grow strongly because of base effects, as limited consumption growth from both the food and energy sectors will cap production incentives. The livestock sector will remain just below self-sufficiency, and quality issues linked to the horsemeat scandal will limit export growth opportunities to the rest of the EU, at least in the near term

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 17.1% to 8.4mn tonnes. This will come from further improvements in yields and increase in area planted. Also, export demand will encourage production.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2017: 10.8%

to 341,900 tonnes. Poultry will continue to be Romanians' favourite meat and the one with the most growth potential as the economy recovers and the consumer story improves.
* Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 18.8% to 784,900 tonnes. This will come as farmers reap the benefits of increasing area devoted to sugar and as production quotas in the EU are being phased out in the medium term.
* 2014 GDP growth: 2.8% (up from 2.4% in 2013).
* 2014 average consumer price inflation: 3.2% (down from 4.6% in 2012).

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754647_romania_agribusiness_report_q1_2014.a ..

Industry Outlook

On the fundamental side, we believe recent strong import demand from the Middle East will soon deplete EU wheat stocks and tighten the regional market. Industry sources have recently indicated that the EU exported twice as much wheat since the start of the 2013/14 season as it did over the same period in 2012/13. In fact, EU export licences since July 1 climbed to 4.5mn tonnes, from 2.1mn tonnes over the same period in 2012 and the most since at least 2004.

In March, the Veterinary and Food Safety Authority in the country released an inspection report indicating that aflatoxin was found in some of the milk available on the local market. Test results showed aflatoxin was detected in about 5.0% of the 1,335 samples examined. The country has increased testing on domestic dairy products as part of efforts to raise the sector's quality standards. These samples were ceased at the delivery level in order to prevent them from reaching the domestic food industry.

We maintain our forecast for sugar production growth in the EU to falter in 2013/14 as yields will disappoint in the largest producing countries. We forecast production to fall by 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013/14, reaching 15.9mn tonnes, compared to 17.2mn tonnes in 2012/13. We revised up our estimate for the previous 2012/13 season on the back of official estimates made at the end of the season. Turning to 2013/14, local industry sources have indicated that yields in all the major regional producers will be low after an unseasonably cold and wet spring delayed beet sowings. In France, final yield estimates for sugar beet are at 84 tonnes/ha, compared to 97 tonnes/ha in 2011, one of the highest on records. German sugar production is estimated to fall by 20.7% y-o-y in 2013/14, largely because of delayed sowings. The UK saw suboptimal growing conditions over the summer, while persistent rains in Italy have drastically reduced the area under cultivation (at 45,000ha against 60-65,000ha of potential).

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: Romania Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Romania Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Romania Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Sugar Outlook
- Table: Romania Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Oultook
- Table: Romania Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Cases Of Horsemeat DNA Found In Beef Products
- Table: Romania Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Romania Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Romania Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grain Outlook
- Table: Romania Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Romania Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Romania Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Romania Barley Production & Consumption. 2007-2012
Commodities Price Outlook
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Europe Machinery Outlook
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Confectionery Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=754647&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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