2013-02-01 01:57:18 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Following a year which BMI believes saw increasing volumes in all freight modes but one, 2013 will signal growth in all modes in line with Romania's economic outlook. Total trade is projected to pick up, with our country risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 6.1% in 2013 following an estimated growth of 2% in 2012.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 5% in 2013. The sector defied the downturn and so far appears to have defied EU pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region; that is not to say, however, that road freight's market share is safe.
BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Romania's freight transport
mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, although currently is expected to growth at a slower pace.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.4%.
* 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.6%.
* 2013 Port of Constantza throughput is forecast to grow by 6.1%.
* 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 5.1%.
* 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%.
* 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 6.1%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529472_romania_freight_transport_report_q1_2 ..
Key Industry Trends
CFR Marfa Privatisation Rolls Forward
As the end of 2012 was approaching, so too was the deadline for the privatisation of Romania's stateowned rail freight operator CFR Marfa. While the company has managed to attract interest from 86 investors and dominates Romania's rail freight sector, now is a tough time to privatise a rail freight asset as Bulgaria's BDZ Cargo found out earlier in 2012. BMI also highlights the growing competition in the European freight market, and we believe the only way for the company to put its losses and debt behind it is to expand its operations outside of Romania's borders.
Turkey Quits Motorway Project
Turkey will not take part in the construction of a major motorway from Romania via Bulgaria to Turkey and Greece after it decided to quit the project. The 300km motorway will connect the town of Ruse on Bulgarian border with Romania with the town of Svilengrad in the south of Bulgaria.
Constantza Upgrades Railway Infrastructure
Works have begun to improve the port of Constantza's railway infrastructure, with the project focusing on the development of the railway capacity in the river-maritime area of Romania's main port, now underway and to be completed in April 2014, 18 months after the works commenced. SC Consal Trade SRL Constanta will perform RON54.3mn worth works according to the contract with the port's authority NC Maritime Ports Administration SA Constantza.
Throughput At Romanian Ports On The Rise
The freight volumes through Romanian seaports, according to port authority NC Maritime Ports Administration SA Constantza, increased by 13% y-o-y in January-September 2012 in terms of tonnage; containerised cargo was up 4.15% in terms of twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
DHL Sells Romanian Courier Cargus
Private equity company Abris Capital Partners has acquired Romanian courier Cargus from DHL. The deal is to be finalised between December 2012 and April 2013 pending the approval by Romania's competition authorities. Abris will take over the client's base, employees and the operational sites as well as domestic currier operations of Cargus.
Bulgaria And Romania To Boost Intermittent Traffic On The Danube
Bulgaria And Romania will once again try to stimulate cross-border traffic on the section of the river Danube. According to a bilateral memorandum, a joint Bulgarian-Romanian committee is to be created to develop transport between the two countries along the Danube. The navigation on the Danube was at times severely hindered by weather conditions in 2012.
Risks to Outlook
BMI highlights the freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the areas with risk to the upside. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, with consumer demand in Romania forecast to slightly strengthen. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 1.7% in 2013.
A downside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of Romania's heavy exposure to the eurozone. Weakened demand will affect the country's ports and freight transport network, as the country's export growth is forecast to remain below 2010-2011 levels in 2013. The Port of Constantza's role as a gateway for trade to and from landlocked Central Europe might also be affected.
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