2013-02-28 15:13:10 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Romania Power Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: Romania is attempting to privatise its state hydro and nuclear power companies, hike electricity prices while limiting damage to the economy and establish a capacity expansion programme capable of meeting long-term demand growth. Although plans to expand its nuclear generation capacity are in disarray, there is growing momentum behind the country's wind power programme. Low electricity prices threaten investment in generating capacity and transmission infrastructure.
State-owned Hidroelectrica has resumed the tendering process for the US$130mn upgrade of its Stejaru power plant, which was suspended in the aftermath of the company's insolvency. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is set to provide US$70mn in financing for the project, with the remainder of the financing coming from commercial banks. The
tender is scheduled to begin in Q113.
Full Report Details at
Privatisation of nuclear generator Nuclearelectrica is also planned for Q113, according to economy minister Daniel Chitoiu in August 2012, following a meeting with the International Monetary Fund mission at the headquarters of the Public Finance Ministry.
Key trends and developments in the Romanian electricity market:
* During the 2013-2021 period, Romania's overall power generation is expected to increase by 2.9% per annum to 76.7 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 9.0% rise in nuclear generation and a 20.2% average increase in non-hydro renewables-based supply, offsetting a 0.5% average annual decline in oil-fired electricity.
* After having seen its output decline 11% in 2012 as a prolonged drought prompted the country to cut electricity supplies, Hidroelectrica resumed operating at full capacity in December 2012.
* Following an anticipated 0.5% increase in 2012 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.0% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to fall slightly from 21.4mn in 2012 to 20.9 in 2021, with net power consumption forecast to increase from 52.6TWh in 2013 to 65.2TWh by 2021. During the 2013-2021 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.8%.
* In May 2012, according to data from the European Energy Portal, the average household electricity price - based on 3,500 kilowatt hours (kWh) per annum consumption - in Romania was EUR0.1095/kWh, which is well below that of most European rivals. In the Czech Republic, for example, the price was EUR0.1480/kWh, compared with EUR0.1488/kWh in Poland, EUR0.1708/kWh in Hungary, EUR0.2031/kWh in Italy and EUR0.1419/kWh in the UK. Low electricity tariffs have discouraged investment in power infrastructure and capacity improvements.
* Thanks largely to the forecast rise in net generation, which lags somewhat the underlying demand trend, Romania's power supply shortfall could double over our 10-year forecast period. A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses - from around 11.8% in 2012 to 10.8% in 2021 - will help minimise the scale of potential imports.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Romania Power SWOT
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Romania Snapshot (Macro)
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Romania Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
- Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Table: Romania Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Romania Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation And Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Table: Electricity Prices In The EU Member States, As Of May 2012
- Central And Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Romania Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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