2014-01-03 19:53:46 - Fast Market Research recommends "Romania Telecommunications Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
During the quarter ending September 2013, the Romanian market registered its largest total of net additions since Q309, posting an increase of 262,000 and reversing a steady trend of decline. BMI does not believe that this is the beginning of a new trend towards growth, and still expect a continuing pattern of slow growth or net losses to be the norm as penetration is over 126%. The market benefits from a good level of competition between major international players, all of which have launched LTE services as of May 2013. With smartphone penetration reaching 27% of Orange's customers, we expect the development of mobile data and value-added services to become the key driver of growth for these players. The ongoing
privatisation of incumbent Romtelecom will see the removal of the government from its stake, benefitting the fixed market with increased investment. Key Data
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754757_romania_telecommunications_report_q1_ ..
* Inactive subscription discounting has been a drag on mobile subscriptions. However, it has returned to the first subscription growth since H212 in Q313, following consecutive quarters of subscription loss in H113.
* The latest data from ANCOM show that fixed and dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions continued to grow in 2012 as overall penetration reached 21.9%.
* Mobile ARPUs have continued to trend downwards following the brief stabilisation that accompanied the period of inactive subscription discounting. BMI expects price competition and IP substitution will contribute to gradual but ongoing declines in ARPU over the medium term.
Key Trends And Developments
Further rate cuts of around 70% were proposed in August 2013, following a public consultation from ANCOM. The regulator proposes that, starting from 2014, the maximum tariff for fixed call termination drop from 0.67 to 0.15 eurocents/minute, while the maximum tariff for mobile call termination would plunge from 3.07 to 0.86 eurocents/minute. Local operators Cosmote, Orange and Vodafone have all expressed their opposition to the cuts, claiming that reduced revenue and profits and will limit future investment in next generation networks. A study by KPMG conducted on behalf of these companies, found that the Romanian state will lose taxes worth EUR13mn per year and operators will lose total revenues of EUR206mn. Fixed-line provider RCS & RDS has come out in support of the proposed cuts, however.
The wireline market in Romania could receive an injection of capital and expertise following the news in July 2013 that the government revived plans to sell its remaining 45.99% stake in incumbent RomTelecom. Greece's Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (OTE) owns 54% of RomTelecom and would have the right of first refusal on the shares. However it has in the past turned down the opportunity to increase its stake. At the time of writing it is not clear how the government will proceed if OTE is not interested in increasing its stake, but based on investor interest in opportunities elsewhere in the region in 2012 and 2013, such as Bulgaria and Serbia, the sale could bring in welcome expertise and capital as the incumbent faces stiff competition from the cable sector.
Privately owned telecoms provider RCS&RDS, has acquired local operator FastLink, a company established in 2007 and will take over its existing subscriber base. No value was provided by the transaction. However, it was reported that FastLink posted a net loss of EUR200,000 in 2012. Fastlink provided internet and telephony services in Bucharest, in the Cotroceni, Sebastian, Rahova and Berceni areas, as well as in the cities of Buzau and Pantelimon near Bucharest.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Historical Data and Forecast: Monthly Blended ARPU (RON), 2010-2017
- Table: Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Industry Rewards
- Country Rewards
- Industry Risks
- Country Risks
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q114
- Regional Perspective
- Table: Romania Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2012
- Key Developments
- Market Growth
- Market Shares
- Table: Net Additions ('000), Q411-Q313
- Subscription Mix
- Usage (ARPU/MOU)
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Mobile Content/Value Added Services
- Table: Total Market Romania
- Table: Orange
- Table: Vodafone
- Table: Cosmote
- Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
- Fixed Broadband
- Table: Fixed Broadband Subscriptions By Technology ('000), 2009-2012
- Table: Wireline Developments 2011-2013
- Table: Romtelecom
- Table: UPC Romania
Industry Trends And Developments
- Regulatory Overview
- Table: Regulatory Body Responsibilities
- Regulatory Development
- Table: Key Players in the Romanian Telecoms Markets
- Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2006-2012, (US$mn)
- Cosmote Romania
- Vodafone Romania
- Orange Romania
- Financial Results
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
- Industry Forecast Methodology
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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