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"Russia Agribusiness Report Q1 2014" is now available at Fast Market Research


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2013-12-05 17:06:12 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Russia Agribusiness Report Q1 2014"

We are very positive about growth potential in the Russian agricultural sector and see tremendous opportunities in the grains and dairy segments in particular. We view the livestock sector positively as well, even though the dominance of the market by domestic players and the high barriers to entry could limit investment and productivity gains in the medium term. WTO entry has not triggered major changes in government support to the sector, but we expect a small reduction in the overall budget allocated to the sector. Combined with lower farmers' income from the subdued 2012/13 season, this could limit the recovery in 2013/14.

Key Developments

* Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 11.9% to 62.9mn tonnes. Yield gains and better access to export

markets in Asia are expected to result in increased wheat production.
* Milk consumption growth to 2017: 0.3% to 11.2mn tonnes. This slight increase in consumption will most likely be aided by increased interest in coffee, as milk is a complementary good. Consumption of premium coffee as a niche-but-growing segment is demonstrated by the rapid growth of domestic coffee house chains.
* Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 62.9% to 4.6mn tonnes. This will come on the back of strong domestic demand and government initiatives to ensure a domestic production surplus. Specifically, the government is implementing programmes to improve the country's slaughter and processing capabilities.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 2.0% (down from 3.4% in 2012; predicted to average 3.0% over 2012-2017).
* Consumer price inflation: 6.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average in 2013 (up from 5.1% y-o-y on average in 2012).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: -14.1% y-o-y to US$41.5bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 1.6% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723504_russia_agribusiness_report_q1_2014.as ..

Industry Developments

We continue to forecast a significant improvement in Russian wheat output in 2013/14 to 55mn tonnes, although we see downside risks to this forecast. The harvest is nearly complete, and questions over yields and quality are surfacing. In particular, local farm operators have suggested that yields vary considerably across the different wheat-producing regions, with much of the concerns surrounding the smaller spring wheat crop. Analysis group SovEcon has suggested that a strong Siberian harvest may counteract long-running dryness in the important Volga region, which is the country's largest wheat growing area.

Recent support to the livestock sector is likely to benefit poultry and pork production in 2013. Russia's largest poultry and pork producer, Cherkizovo, highlighted that H113 was one of the most challenging quarters the company has experienced in recent years, with grain prices at historic highs and pork prices at a low owing to weak domestic demand. The company posted a 53.0% fall in EBITDA, and its net profit decreased by 91.0% to US$9.0mn in H113. However, the company indicated that most of the challenging environment was seen in Q113, and Q213 showed signs of improvement, with grain prices starting to moderate and meat prices, especially pork, recovering slightly. This is in line with our view that pressure on the company's margins would lessen over the near term. We expect the recovery to accelerate in the coming quarters, especially as the company develops its vertical integration.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Rice Outlook
- Table: Russia Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: Russia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Russia Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Russia Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Russia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Russia Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: Russia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Russia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Russia Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Featured Analysis
- Retaliatory Measures Reinforce Livestock Strategy
- Table: Russia Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: Russia Pork Production & Consumption
- Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- More Troubles For Potash Producers
Commodities Forecast
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Machinery Outlook
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Fish Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Dairy - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=723504&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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