2013-09-24 04:53:44 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Saudi Arabia Food & Drink Report Q4 2013"
Our outlook for the Saudi consumer remains bullish, with an uptick in private consumption and a regionally enviable demographic profile continuing to spur growth. Although a contraction in the oil sector has affected real GDP growth, the consumer continues to be buoyed by gains made in the non-hydrocarbon sector as well as by high governmental expenditure. We forecast private consumption to grow by 6.0% in 2013, revised up from 5.0% previously, and expect the retail sector to remain bright over the medium term, boosted by rising disposable incomes and increasing urbanisation.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 food consumption growth in local currency = +9.8%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +8.9%
* 2013 confectionery value sales growth in local
currency = +8.6%; CAGR to 2017 = +7.4%
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales growth in local currency = +11.7%; CAGR to 2017 = +10.5%
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/686341_saudi_arabia_food_drink_report_q4_201 ..
Key Company Trends
Almarai Continues Promising Growth In First Half: Saudi Arabia-based diversified food and drink company Almarai has been one of the Gulf region's fastest growing food and drink companies for a number of years now, with its very strong dairy business in its home market providing a foundation for growth. That said, it has taken some positive steps towards diversifying, both in terms of geography and business categories, spending a reported US$1bn on diversification since 2007. Almarai has recently reported a 15.8% year-on-year increase in sales to SAR5.3bn (US$1.4bn) for the six months to June 30 2013.
Tim Hortons Looks To Saudi Arabia For Growth: Coffee and doughnut specialist Tim Hortons, Canada's largest restaurant chain, has announced impressive expansion plans for Saudi Arabia. Complementing its wider Gulf Cooperation Council operations started in 2011, the company plans to establish up to 100 multiformat outlets over the next five years with regional partner Apparel FCZO. With Tim Hortons the latest international chain looking to benefit from the dynamic Saudi consumer, investment across the country's food and drink sector shows no sign of slowing in the near term.
IDJ Takes Full Control Of Teeba: In April 2013 it was announced that International Dairy & Juice Co (IDJ), a joint venture between Almarai and PepsiCo, had taken full control of Jordanian food processing company Teeba Investment. IDJ previously held 75% of Teeba and raised its stake to 100% by purchasing Alsafa Co's 25% share for JOD12mn (US$17mn). According to a statement made by Almarai to the Saudi stock exchange, this new ownership structure would allow IDJ to 'drive the Teeba investment forward'.
An Increasingly Energised Soft Drinks Industry: of increasingly dynamic consumer demand supports our view that with maturing carbonate sales, continued diversification within the soft drinks segment will stimulate growth and increase value sales. With a vast, youthful population, consumers will continue to spur demand for products such as functional, energy enhanced drinks, facilitated by our bullish outlook for increased consumer spending to 2017.
Risks To Outlook
Although our outlook for the Saudi economy in the next 18 months is relatively bullish, a sudden and persistent downturn in the price of oil would represent a key downside risk to our growth forecasts, and cannot be ruled out given the uncertain state of the world economy. The government would most likely scale back oil production to keep prices supported, while a deterioration in Saudi Arabia's fiscal and current account position could force a cutback in government spending. However, the government remains buffered by the size of its reserves and could likely keep expenditure elevated for some time, limiting the immediate impact on the economy.
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