2012-11-18 04:25:25 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Leading indicator data has not dampened BMI's positive outlook on the Saudi Arabian economy, reaffirming our view that Saudi Arabia's power sector will remain among the most dynamic in the Gulf Cooperation Council over the short-term. In addition, macroeconomic and demographic dynamics support a positive medium-to-long-term outlook. Announcements have prompted us to revise upward our capacity forecasts for the non-hydro renewable segment, namely solar. However, our outlook is more conservative than the one presented by the government, as we still believe that the existing regulatory environment creates downside risks for new projects.
With fixed investment and government spending continuing to grow apace, BMI's country risk analysts hold to their above-consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2012 and have
revised up the projection for 2013 from 4.1% to 4.5%. Heavy government stimulus has prompted an acceleration of activity more-or-less across the board, and our outlook for both domestic consumption and fixed investment remains broadly positive. Available macroeconomic data continues to impress, and we expect the economy to remain a regional outperformer in the near term, pushing power consumption.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/499862_saudi_arabia_power_report_q4_2012.asp ..
While the pace of growth achieved over the past couple of years (real GDP grew by an estimated 7.1% in 2011) will be difficult to sustain over the medium term, positive economic and demographic dynamics, coupled with sector-specific developments, will also continue to support an healthy growth outlook for the country's power sector in the coming years. This will push the government to expand and diversify its capacity generating infrastructure in the following ways:
* The country is already executing an extremely ambitious US$80bn expansion plan for power projects, with the Kingdom's Ninth Development Plan (2010-2014) aiming to raise generating capacity by 20.4 gigawatts (GW) by 2014. Even if BMI adopts a conservative stance and only 70% of the planned capacity comes online, our forecasts show that the country will be able to meet its commitments, with total installed capacity to reach just over 72GW by 2014.
* Plans to include non-hydro renewable sources, namely solar, have started to take shape in the Kingdom, with the country announcing in May 2012 that it is seeking US$109bn of investment. This is to be channelled into expanding its undeveloped solar industry - aiming to reach an ambitious target of 41GW of installed capacity by 2032.
While more bearish than the Saudi government, BMI believes that the very strong track record in the development of power projects bodes well for non-hydro rewables expansion, especially since the Saudi government has long demonstrated a substantial commitment to social and economic infrastructure, as well as its desire to free up hydrocarbon for exports through the development of alternative technologies such as nuclear and now solar.
Report Table of Contents:
- Saudi Arabia Power SWOT
Regional Industry Overview
- MEA Power: Strong Fundamentals Support Sanguine Outlook
- Table: Top 10 Infrastructure Projects Globally In 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Saudi Arabia Snapshot (Macro)
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data, 2011-2021
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Saudi Arabia Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Table: Saudi Arabia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Saudi Arabia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Table: New Capacity - Planned Or In The Pipeline, 2012-2021 (MW)
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Key Projects Database
- Table: Key Projects
- MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Mea Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Saudi Arabia's Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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